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2016 Presidential Election

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  • Scalia's death means a lame duck Obama can put forth a SCOTUS justice with zero fucks to give.
  • Rym said:

    Scalia's death means a lame duck Obama can put forth a SCOTUS justice with zero fucks to give.

    You thing the GOP Senate will confirm any Obama nominee? They may decide to not even bring it up for a vote.
  • I highly doubt that any nominee will be confirmed until after November.
  • I'm trying to find information on this but an 11 month vacancy on the supreme court would probably be unprecedented.
  • So GOP has to decide whether to let Obama get his nominee confirmed or risk driving Democratic turnout through the roof in the next election.
  • Honestly the only people motivated by supreme court picks are people who are already voting.
  • According to a guy on Twitter, the longest time from nomination to confirmation for a Supreme Court Justice has been 125 days. However, I don't really doubt that the Senate will have no problem with breaking that record so that they can see who's going to get elected.
  • Crem is probably right on that. 11 months is too long because 11 months is, in reality, far longer than 11 months. This assumes that whomever is elected instantly has a candidate ready and congress is ready to instantly usher in that candidate. Were I running, for either party, I'd want Obama to get it done.

    Using political capitol on something like an early SCOTUS nominee might not be the best use. Dems have less to lose in this situation, I think.
  • If the Republicans are the ones holding back a nomination, it gives too much fire to the Democrats to push rhetoric on the voter-base to encourage more mass voting, not just for a Democratic president but also for Senate nominations to help push a Democratic candidate through.

    The other interesting question is does Obama just fight through a stonewall for the nominee he wants, or does he compromise before the election and put someone less than ideal who will actually get approved in?
  • Please oh please oh please Obama drop the mic on this.
  • http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-supreme-court-wont-be-getting-another-sotomayor-anytime-soon/#ss-6
    In addition, if a vacancy came near the end of Obama’s term, the temptation to stall could be too great for Republicans to resist. Professors Charles M. Cameron and Jonathan P. Kastellec of Princeton University and Jee-Kwang Park of American University have argued that interest-group pressure would keep most Republicans from voting for even a moderate nominee. They also insist that a nominee who would move the court ideologically — a liberal justice replacing a conservative justice, for example — would have a difficult time basically no matter what.
  • Rym said:

    Please oh please oh please Obama drop the mic on this.

    That is SO BAD for the mic. Quit doing that shit. Get a prop mic, at the least.

    But yes.
  • Bush did this when O'Conner a Centrist retired, and he but in a ultra right winger... Alito....sooooooo.... they can suck on a dick if they stall
  • Rym said:

    Please oh please oh please Obama drop the mic on this.

    I'm hoping his mic drop is removing weed as a Category One drug but this would serve a nice second.

    They are going to stall. No ifs, ands, nor buts. I that figure of 125 is correct, it's about to get shattered. The congress that is making the Do Nothing Congress seem like workaholics? It's not a secret that republicans, in our age, do not know what the word compromise means. They give no ground on anything. The sad state is? It's working for them more than against them.

    Refuse to move, Democrats have to move right to try and work things out, and Republicans either move further right and keep the status quo or take the "concessions" and the needle moves in the direction they want in spite of having nothing more than the Congress and the cowardice to listen to what Americans actually want.

    That, more than anything, is why I want Bernie and those like him to take office. People need to wake up to what's happening. I've always thought the system was dysfunctional but at least things worked. Reagan cut deals with Waxman and Kennedy on shit like Medicare and things at least crawled forward. I'm sick of nothing getting done because Republicans pout and shit their pants the second they have to give an inch of ground.

    And don't get me started on the media.
  • Dromaro said:

    Rym said:

    Please oh please oh please Obama drop the mic on this.

    I'm hoping his mic drop is removing weed as a Category One drug but this would serve a nice second.

    They are going to stall. No ifs, ands, nor buts. If that figure of 125 days is correct, it's about to get shattered. The congress that is making the Do Nothing Congress seem like workaholics? It's not a secret that republicans, in our age, do not know what the word compromise means. They give no ground on anything. The sad state is? It's working for them more than against them.

    Refuse to move, Democrats have to move right to try and work things out, and Republicans either move further right and keep the status quo or take the "concessions" and the needle moves in the direction they want in spite of having nothing more than the Congress and the cowardice to listen to what Americans actually want.

    That, more than anything, is why I want Bernie and those like him to take office. People need to wake up to what's happening. I've always thought the system was dysfunctional but at least things worked. Reagan cut deals with Waxman and Kennedy on shit like Medicare and things at least crawled forward. I'm sick of nothing getting done because Republicans pout and shit their pants the second they have to give an inch of ground.

    And don't get me started on the media.
  • The longest Supreme Court vacancy was 2 years and 4 months, after Henry Baldwin died in April 1844, though it came about mostly because John Tyler had zero legitimacy as President. He tried to nominate two men to fill the vacancy; one (Edward King) was postponed (and he withdrew the renomination), the other (John Read) was tabled until Tyler was out of office (this was late into his term). Then James Polk's first nominee (George Woodward) was rejected, and it took until August 1846 for him to find a new nominee, Robert Cooper Grier, who was quickly confirmed.

    It should be noted that Tyler had to fill another seat on the Court after Smith Thompson died. He tried and failed twice with two different nominees before he nominated Samuel Nelson, who was so respected as Chief Justice of the New York Supreme Court that he was confirmed very quickly.

    From Fark.
  • What if Obama names somebody as a recess appointment?

    The justice would be able to serve until the next Senate session (ie, after the general election). The Republicans wouldn't be able to do anything about it.
  • That would do more harm than good.
  • Agreed. That would fire up Republicans for no real political gain.
  • Nuri said:

    Rym said:

    Please oh please oh please Obama drop the mic on this.

    That is SO BAD for the mic. Quit doing that shit. Get a prop mic, at the least.

    But yes.
    Haha. Fun fact: Penny Arcade has two dedicated "dropping mics" for PAX. So they don't damage a bunch of microphones.

  • Cremlian said:

    The longest Supreme Court vacancy was 2 years and 4 months, after Henry Baldwin died in April 1844, though it came about mostly because John Tyler had zero legitimacy as President. He tried to nominate two men to fill the vacancy; one (Edward King) was postponed (and he withdrew the renomination), the other (John Read) was tabled until Tyler was out of office (this was late into his term). Then James Polk's first nominee (George Woodward) was rejected, and it took until August 1846 for him to find a new nominee, Robert Cooper Grier, who was quickly confirmed.

    It should be noted that Tyler had to fill another seat on the Court after Smith Thompson died. He tried and failed twice with two different nominees before he nominated Samuel Nelson, who was so respected as Chief Justice of the New York Supreme Court that he was confirmed very quickly.

    From Fark.

    Why did Tyler have no legitimacy as President? He was VP for William Henry Harrison, before Harrison died 30 days after his inauguration (making him the punchline President). What complications were there?
  • edited February 2016
    Rym said:

    Nuri said:

    Rym said:

    Please oh please oh please Obama drop the mic on this.

    That is SO BAD for the mic. Quit doing that shit. Get a prop mic, at the least.

    But yes.
    Haha. Fun fact: Penny Arcade has two dedicated "dropping mics" for PAX. So they don't damage a bunch of microphones.
    May I remind you two that the presidential microphone is the Shure SM57/58. Those things are as solid as a GameCube. I've literally seen a musician slam a SM-58 onto the stage, then pick it up and carry on singing. Drop away, Obama.
    Post edited by Victor Frost on
  • Rym said:

    Nuri said:

    Rym said:

    Please oh please oh please Obama drop the mic on this.

    That is SO BAD for the mic. Quit doing that shit. Get a prop mic, at the least.

    But yes.
    Haha. Fun fact: Penny Arcade has two dedicated "dropping mics" for PAX. So they don't damage a bunch of microphones.
    May I remind you two that the presidential microphone is the Shure SM57/58. Those things are as solid as a GameCube. I've literally seen a musician slam a SM-58 onto the stage, then pick it up and carry on singing. Drop away, Obama.
    Seeing as I just bought this this is a good thing for me to know.
  • Greg said:

    Rym said:

    Nuri said:

    Rym said:

    Please oh please oh please Obama drop the mic on this.

    That is SO BAD for the mic. Quit doing that shit. Get a prop mic, at the least.

    But yes.
    Haha. Fun fact: Penny Arcade has two dedicated "dropping mics" for PAX. So they don't damage a bunch of microphones.
    May I remind you two that the presidential microphone is the Shure SM57/58. Those things are as solid as a GameCube. I've literally seen a musician slam a SM-58 onto the stage, then pick it up and carry on singing. Drop away, Obama.
    Seeing as I just bought this this is a good thing for me to know.
    I would look at that the same way I look at waterproof phones. It's good to know but don't test it.
  • RymRym
    edited February 2016

    Greg said:


    Seeing as I just bought this this is a good thing for me to know.

    I would look at that the same way I look at waterproof phones. It's good to know but don't test it.
    Haha. For real. I've never swing the mics at anything. But they've had a few minor accidents and appear to indeed be invincible. The Beta 87A and 58A seem almost as invincible.

    Post edited by Rym on
  • If you are not, you really should watch this debate. It is amazing.
  • Banta said:

    If you are not, you really should watch this debate. It is amazing.

    The only other GOP debate I watched was the first one. Holy crap, there was so much mud slinging. Have all of them been like this?
  • Banta said:

    If you are not, you really should watch this debate. It is amazing.

    I watched the first hour. Did it get better than "she should be running"?
  • It got amazing. There was blood in the water and everyone was a shark (except Ben Carson).

    Go watch it on youtube when you can.
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