Lately it seems like bad news on top of bad news. There's Geneon vanishing, Newtype trouble, and ADV changing distribution in Europe. I know of a guy who was working on Newtype USA at ADV and he's been posting several things on forums claiming that the market really isn't making the money it used to.
Right now is a great time to snag several series for cheap, but is there going to be much left? It's like the days of a dying videogame console.
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Now the demographic is Narutards and the like. This is a demographic of people who have grown up with the Internets full on. They have shit tons of free time, and there is a shit ton of content out there that they enjoy. However, they also have no money. Everything they own is bought by their parents. Their parents are only willing to spend a fixed amount of money on them. Knowing this, the kids will always choose a path that gets them the most content for the least money. They will have the parents spend the money on used video games, while they sell back old games, they will buy some manga, and they will pirate music and anime.
I'm beginning to think that the way to make money off these kids is to find some way to make an incredibly large amount of content at a very low price.
1. Stuff is getting licensed that won't ever make any money. Look at what Geneon's been putting out the last few years. Case in point. Anime is a niche market as it is, but some titles really aim for the niche within the niche.
2. Piracy, and the industry's response to it. I'm not about to go off on fansubbing. I think it fills a demand that in most cases R1 distributors are not filling. BUT there are two big issues inherent. One, the anime industry generally isn't filling and monetizing that demand itself. Viz started doing it with subbed eps of Death Note as soon as they nabbed the license. Funi is doing it now with a couple series, like pay $1.99 per ep subbed, which if you do the math, is pretty awesome.
Also, many fans, as Zac Bertschy put it on an interview with Anime Today, feel "entitled." They get this stuff for free on fansubs and don't see why they ought to pay money to see stuff they already saw. Honestly, that's a load of crap. Anime isn't cheap to make, it isn't cheap to license, it isn't cheap to dub. The least you could do to show support for the show is buy a DVD or two.
3. Kind of ties into 2. Digital distribution and the industry's slow adoption of it. iTunes, Xbox Live, and other services provide an opportunity for the industry to easily rake in money hand over fist through this a la carte downloading. But not many Japanese studios are taking the bait. But darnit, the US companies are trying. A trip to XBL reveals 31 different shows, plus the Animatrix, and a few movies. More is always better.
4. The US economy.
5. Television. TV is a great opportunity for anime. Unfortunately, Toonami and AS can only handle so much. Outside of that, the only real opportunity a lot of shows have in the US is on VOD services, which blows. Anime Network just killed its 24/7 network, which doesn't help. It seems that whole sector is dwindling. Oh Anime Unleashed, how I miss you.
Okay, maybe it's not a problem after all.
The anime companies are moving dangerously close to a business model that depends on charity. The comics publishers already have such a business model, and you can see it's not working out too well for them. You simply can not run a business where your customers only buy your product out of charity. Instead, you have to have a product that people are dying for, and they give you money because they want the product so badly.
The key for anime companies now is to remarket or repackage the product such that people will be dying to get their hands on it.
I fully agree that you should not be buying DVDs out of guilt. You should not be buying shitty shows to "support the industry", but if something is good enough to watch on fansubs then it's good enough to buy/rent. This should be especially relevant in the geeknights very bombastic "we agreed long ago to never waste time on anything" stance on entertainment. If a show isn't good enough to pay money for (even if it's Neflix) then why are you wasting time watching it? If something's good enough to watch, it's good enough to pay money for to support the artists who made it. Like I said before, it's good enough at least for the reason that paying for it will hopefully get more of the same stuff made. If you don't want to pay for it, fine. But don't NOT pay for it, then STEAL it, and then act like it's someone else's problem.
Buying it isn't charity, it's operating inside a normal business model that everything else exists under. Because it's so damn easy to get fansubs people feel entitled, just like Zac says. Leisure is not a right. Acting like anime companies are doing something wrong because they want to sell you a product is pretty asinine. Anime companies have made some pretty boneheaded moves recently, and they've run out of backcatalog of awesome shows to carry their weight. So they're licensing a lot of shit. Don't buy that shit if you don't want it. Don't buy DVDs if you think they're too expensive. Shit, don't buy them if you don't like the fact that they don't have inserts anymore, who cares. That's fine, and that's how business is supposed to work. The problem I have is with people NOT buying the DVDs, watching the fansubs, and then acting like it's the anime company's fault for their stealing. Sounds tantamount to blaming rape victims for wearing tantalizing clothing.
Just because it's easy to steal something doesn't mean it's okay to do it. I'm pretty sick of people acting like it's the anime company's fault that they were "forced" to watch fansubs. I'd have a lot less problems with piracy if it wasn't for the elitist fucking douchebags acting like they were saving the human race with a moral conquest of good against the EVIL ANIME COMPANIES every time they download an episode of Cat Fucker Nuku-Neko.
If someone knowingly makes an exchange that is one-sided toward the other party in order to support them, then that is charity. However, charity and purchasing can be combined. If you make a $50 donation to the public television station, and you get a $5 tote bag, that's a $45 charity. If there is an anime series that you would have normally only bought for $30, but you buy it for $50 to support the industry, then that's a $20 charity.
It all comes down to what feelings people have in their hearts. Most of the time people purchase products out of desire. They want the product, they are willing to pay the price, and they can afford it. Sometimes people pay more for a product than they otherwise would, or they purchase a product they otherwise would not purchase, because they have feelings of charity. That's perfectly fine.
What is not fine is resting the success or failure of your business on those feelings of charity. If your bakery is only staying in business because the townsfolk want to support you, something is wrong. People should be coming to your bakery and giving you money because they can't resist your amazing breads and pastries. The anime industry does not have so many of the amazing breads and pastries. The only reason they are doing poorly is because they insist on selling a product that is not desired greatly enough.
Seriously think about it. If fansubs were all eliminated, would anime purchasing increase? Hells no. It would drop like a rock. People like me who find out about new shows through fansubs would no longer find about about new shows that I may have purchased. People who only watch fansubs, and never buy anything, will simply find some other free way to occupy their surplus of spare time.
It's quite simple. People don't buy anime DVDs because they do not want them.
Most anime, I'd probably just watch on TV. But then again, if they were on TV, I'd just Tivo them and skip the advertisements. That's really no better for the anime companies than just bit-torrenting the show in the first place: it just happens to be legal.
My point is that I basically give almost zero money to the anime industry despite watching volumes of it perfectly legally. Am I any worse than the pirates?
If anime would be somewhere in the price range of american TV shows by 30-50€ a box set I would buy so much more of it, you wouldn't believe. But I doubt that is going to happen as long as the japanese companies keep highway robbing their own country and believe they can do the same in other regions. 5,776 yen (about 36€ or 53$) for a two-episode disc, are you kidding me?
But then again. I'm Region 2. If I had the money I would draw up a Europe wide Netflix clone in no time and make millions.