cell phones and surveys

HMTKSteve

I think Scrym brought this up once or twice on the show.

Cell phone users and presidential preferences

rhinocero

Bottom line:

As long as pollsters weigh properly for key demographics (like non-white and younger respondents), the cell-only problem is a minor one. But that doesn't meant there isn't a long-term threat to polling.

Nobody should expect dramatic differences between polling and actual election results because of this factor, but over the long term, polling companies may have to change their methodology.

Your Mom

"The latest Pew Research Center national survey, conducted June 18-29 with a sample of 2,004 adults including 503 on a cell phone, finds that the overall estimate of voter presidential preference is modestly affected by whether or not the cell phone respondents are included.(KOS)" "The number of Americans who have a cell phone but no landline phone has continued to grow, reaching a total of 14.5% of all adults during the last six months of 2007, according to U.S. government estimates. In addition, 22.3% of all adults live in households with both landline and cell phones but say that they receive all or almost all calls on their cell phones. (PEW)"

"Preliminary results from the July-December 2007 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) indicate that nearly one out of every six American homes (15.8%) had only wireless telephones during the second half of 2007. In addition, more than one out of every eight American homes (13.1%) received all or almost all calls on wireless telephones despite having a landline telephone in the home. This report presents the most up-to-date estimates available from the federal government concerning the size and characteristics of these populations.(NHIS)"

Looking specifically at the Pew Research site in question: only 5% of their sample was actual cell phone-only usage. Five percent is significantly less than 15.8%. 15% of cell-phone mostly were represented in the poll, which was closer representation. They do not account for a representative portion of cell phone users in a small sample size. Nearly 37% of the figures from Pew are nearly exclusive cell phone users; 37% is a very significant swing vote. They also claim that cell phone only users tend to be poor, which is not at all representative of a good chunk of present company. There is absolute zero demographic data to represent who has been called. For all we know, this could be older white males from West Virginia, and Pew could have a distinctly conservative agenda.
Without the demographic data to back it up and poor representation and sample size of the source in question, this poll represents very little.

The point is that cell phone usage continues to rise. Out of curiousity, how may people here have ever been surveyed for an election? How many only own a cell phone?

Jason

I'm co-opting this thread because I think it's very interesting that the Justice Department is filing an anti-trust suit against the AT&T and T-Mobile merger. A spokesman is saying that combining the no. 2 and no. 4 providers will limit competition too much.

I'm curious how the pure market folks view this. I believe market pressures do an awful lot, but they can't prevent monopoly.

Apreche

I'm co-opting this thread because I think it's very interesting that the Justice Department is filing an anti-trust suit against the AT&T; and T-Mobile merger. A spokesman is saying that combining the no. 2 and no. 4 providers will limit competition too much.

I'm curious how the pure market folks view this. I believe market pressures do an awful lot, but they can't prevent monopoly.

I think the government should go further and actively bust up the wireless providers like they did to the original AT&T.; Force the wireless carriers to let other companies lease space on the towers so there can be a zillion competing wireless providers. We used to have MVNOs, but the prices made it an unworkable business model. Very few still exist. They need to do the same thing with the landlines just like they do in the UK. When even the grocery store is an ISP, prices fall way down and service gets way better.

open_sketchbook

Why do you hate America so much, Scott?

George Patches

Cause he's a Socialist!

Gold Experience

I thought Geeknights was a libertarian podcast

Dragonmaster Lou

I thought Geeknights was a libertarian podcast

There's a difference between libertarian (little-'l') and Libertarian (big-'L'). Geeknights is definitely closer to the little-'l' variety and arguably could be considered "liberaltarian."

Gold Experience

I wasn't aware of this distinction please educate me.

Jason

I wasn't aware of this distinction please educate me.

When talking about (l)ibertarianism, it's a philosophy. When talking about Liberatarianism, it's a pretty fucked-up political movement.

Apreche

Libertarians, the political party, are mostly people who really do believe that government should only handle police, courts, and the military, and shouldn't be involved in anything else whatsoever.

We are much more pragmatic and realize such insanity would never work, even if we wanted it. We do however, love freedom and do believe in less crazy things like nearly eliminating the TSA and such.

WindUpBird

More America, less 'Muhrica, basically.

Gold Experience

I thought Libertarians wanted no government at all. I hadn't even heard of Libertarians until a few years ago when Glenn Beck was really big on TV/a cash cow for mockery so I know I don't know all the facts.

George Patches

Glenn Beck is a Crazy, not a Libertarian.

open_sketchbook

As far as I'm concerned, that's a tautology.

trogdor9

As far as I'm concerned, that's a tautology.

You can be crazy and not be a Libertarian, but you're pretty much guaranteed to be crazy if you're a Libertarian. Not a tautology. A tautology is a tautology.

Jason

“A rational anarchist believes that concepts such as ‘state’ and ‘society’ and ‘government’ have no existence save as physically exemplified in the acts of self-responsible individuals. He believes that it is impossible to shift blame, share blame, distribute blame…as blame, guilt, responsibility are matters taking place inside human beings singly and nowhere else. But being rational, he knows that not all individuals hold his evaluations, so he tries to live perfectly in an imperfect world…aware that effort will be less than perfect yet undismayed by self-knowledge of self-failure."

People are shitty. That's why this will never work.

Viga

As far as I'm concerned, that's a tautology.

You can be crazy and not be a Libertarian, but you're pretty much guaranteed to be crazy if you're a Libertarian. Not a tautology. A tautology is a tautology.

First rule of tautology club is the first rule of tautology club.

WindUpBird

First rule of Recursion Club is the first rule of Recursion Club.

FTFY

Dragonmaster Lou

I thought Libertarians wanted no government at all. I hadn't even heard of Libertarians until a few years ago when Glenn Beck was really big on TV/a cash cow for mockery so I know I don't know all the facts.

No, anarchists want no government at all. Libertarians want as small a government with as few laws as possible. It's kind of a fine distinction as it's fuzzy as to where you draw the line at "how small is small enough." Basically, I think they feel that they only need just enough of a government to keep someone else from taking their stuff.

Andrew

Viga

I thought Libertarians wanted no government at all. I hadn't even heard of Libertarians until a few years ago when Glenn Beck was really big on TV/a cash cow for mockery so I know I don't know all the facts.

No, anarchists want no government at all. Libertarians want as small a government with as few laws as possible. It's kind of a fine distinction as it's fuzzy as to where you draw the line at "how small is small enough." Basically, I think they feel that they only need just enough of a government to keep someone else from taking their stuff.

But because they have that need for order and love of disorder, it always seemed like anarchy is a fallacy. Or so it seemed when I had a bunch of them in my face at a bar after a rally.