We were just talking about this because it was on the TV in the diner. Something interesting came up, that I never thought of before.
Let's say we just decide to take NK out. We go in with the military, and they're done for. Ok, so now we've probably killed lots of innocent civilians, and also there are a bunch of refugees that nobody can take care of.
Let's say best case scenario. North Korea surrenders completely to South Korea, and it's just Korea again. There's now a bunch of refugees that South Korea really doesn't want, and will have trouble affording, to take care of.
Can anyone come up with a realistic scenario for North Korea that isn't fail?
@NotAlex: That says Saturday, the BBC and other news sources say it was launched today at 2:30 GMT. That article doesn't give a time of posting so time zones might be a problem.
Japan said the first stage splashed down in the Sea of Japan and the second stage crashed in the Pacific. North Korea, meanwhile, reports a successful launch into space and that the "experimental satellite" is operating perfectly. The U.N. Security Council is supposedly meeting at 2 p.m. EST (1900 Zulu).
No, North Korea can't do that. They can try but they won't get very far.
On the issue of reunification: Think like Germany after the fall of the wall but like 100 times worse. There is still an economic divide between East and West, but the cultural and economic differences between the two were far smaller than those between North and South Korea. Even so, reunification caused a large financial strain on the East, and I can just imagine what would happen in Korea.
On the issue of reunification: Think like Germany after the fall of the wall but like 100 times worse.
I'd prefer to think of it like Germany after the fall of the wall but like 100 times better. Maybe 100 times more problematic for the rest of the world, but 100 times better for the North Koreans.
Hold on a second, I'm on the west coast. Now I'm a little more worried.
Yeah, exactly. We didn't have as much to worry about around 9/11.
I had a lot to worry about after 9/11. Boston and Providence were supposed to be major targets! Now I move here are the Koreans are launching missiles. God dammit.
Can anyone come up with a realistic scenario for North Korea that isn't fail?
A half crazed military dictatorship nuclear capabilities are disabled - WIN! As for the citizens - they are currently starving to death, being gassed, tortured, and we can't know about all the other shit because attempts at free speech lead to death. In any scenario North Korea will suffer, but at least it won't the entire region with it.
Finally, North Korea's technology is moving into the 1940s era.
They already launched a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead to Japan, terrorizing South Korea and China. technology doesn't need to get much better than that for mass murder.
If North Korea ever tried to mess with China, they'd get slagged. China doesn't fuck around regarding its security. They might consider citizens expendable, but the country needs to appear monolithic and invincible for the Communist party to stay in power.
Finally, North Korea's technology is moving into the 1940s era.
They already launched a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead to Japan, terrorizing South Korea and China. technology doesn't need to get much better than that for mass murder.
Don't forget, we DID carry a nuclear warhead to Japan in the '40s. Two, in fact.
But seriously, there's at least 6 nations in the world other than North Korea who have nuclear capabilities (and the grudges to actually want to use them), but so far the US is the only nation to actually use them for war. Don't forget, using nuclear force, especially now, would be suicide for North Korea. Kim Jong Il may be crazy, but he's not stupid (or at least, not that stupid). He's probably using this to gain leverage over the world, trying to get nations to provide trade/other incentives for him to stop. If North Korea actually launched a nuke, or threatened to, they'd have nearly the entire world (and most, if not all of the nuclear powers) trying to stop them with force.
Kim Jong Il ... [is] probably using this to gain leverage over the world, trying to get nations to provide trade/other incentives for him to stop. If North Korea actually launched a nuke, or threatened to, they'd have nearly the entire world (and most, if not all of the nuclear powers) trying to stop them with force.
Remember that this is really a test of China's responsibility. North Korea, under sanctions from so many other countries, receives 90 percent of its food from China, and is largely dependent on China as its communist political supporter. North Korea is also dependent on China to broker negotiations with Japan, since no diplomatic ties exist directly between Japan and North Korea. So more than anything, this launch is really a litmus test for the Chinese government. If China refuses to tighten sanctions or apply other political pressure on Kim Jong Il, it will be a de facto support for communist nuclear proliferation and could land us back on the cold war containment merry-go-round.
More people died in firebombing raids on Tokyo by the Americans than were killed by either of the two nuclear bombs dropped in Japan.
One (of many) firebombing raid:
Changing their tactics to expand the coverage and increase the damage, 335 B-29s took off[1] to raid on the night of 9–10 March, with 279 of them[1] dropping around 1,700 tons of bombs. Fourteen B-29s were lost.[1] Approximately 16 square miles (41 km²) of the city were destroyed and some 100,000 people are estimated to have died in the resulting firestorm, more than the immediate deaths of either Hiroshima or Nagasaki.[2][3] The US Strategic Bombing Survey later estimated that nearly 88,000 people died in this one raid, 41,000 were injured, and over a million residents lost their homes. The Tokyo Fire Department estimated a higher toll: 97,000 killed and 125,000 wounded. The Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department established a figure of 124,711 casualties including both killed and wounded and 286,358 buildings and homes destroyed.
Nuclear bomb 1:
According to most estimates, the immediate effects of the blast killed approximately 70,000 people in Hiroshima. Estimates of total deaths by the end of 1945 from burns, radiation and related disease, the effects of which were aggravated by lack of medical resources, range from 90,000 to 140,000
2:
Casualty estimates for immediate deaths range from 40,000 to 75,000.[57][58][59] Total deaths by the end of 1945 may have reached 80,000.
I'm just trying to put the use of nuclear weapons used in 1945 into scale. Compared to any nuclear device developed these days they were very, very small indeed.
Comments
Let's say we just decide to take NK out. We go in with the military, and they're done for. Ok, so now we've probably killed lots of innocent civilians, and also there are a bunch of refugees that nobody can take care of.
Let's say best case scenario. North Korea surrenders completely to South Korea, and it's just Korea again. There's now a bunch of refugees that South Korea really doesn't want, and will have trouble affording, to take care of.
Can anyone come up with a realistic scenario for North Korea that isn't fail?
Anymoo, damn it must suck being North Korean.
Hold on a second, I'm on the west coast. Now I'm a little more worried. Has there been a confirmed splash down?
On the issue of reunification: Think like Germany after the fall of the wall but like 100 times worse. There is still an economic divide between East and West, but the cultural and economic differences between the two were far smaller than those between North and South Korea. Even so, reunification caused a large financial strain on the East, and I can just imagine what would happen in Korea.
As for the citizens - they are currently starving to death, being gassed, tortured, and we can't know about all the other shit because attempts at free speech lead to death.
In any scenario North Korea will suffer, but at least it won't the entire region with it. They already launched a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead to Japan, terrorizing South Korea and China. technology doesn't need to get much better than that for mass murder.
But seriously, there's at least 6 nations in the world other than North Korea who have nuclear capabilities (and the grudges to actually want to use them), but so far the US is the only nation to actually use them for war. Don't forget, using nuclear force, especially now, would be suicide for North Korea. Kim Jong Il may be crazy, but he's not stupid (or at least, not that stupid). He's probably using this to gain leverage over the world, trying to get nations to provide trade/other incentives for him to stop. If North Korea actually launched a nuke, or threatened to, they'd have nearly the entire world (and most, if not all of the nuclear powers) trying to stop them with force.
One (of many) firebombing raid: Nuclear bomb 1: 2: I'm just trying to put the use of nuclear weapons used in 1945 into scale. Compared to any nuclear device developed these days they were very, very small indeed.