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GeekNights 20101227 - Tech Predictions 2010-2011

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  • edited January 2011
    You should have taken up Rym on that bet Scott.

    OMG, so happy. ^____^

    But isn't the iPhone 5 coming out this year too? Hmm...
    Post edited by Rochelle on
  • But isn't the iPhone 5 coming out this year too? Hmm...
    Well aren't we being picky now.
  • But isn't the iPhone 5 coming out this year too? Hmm...
    No. There will be no iPhone 5. Look at the pattern. Every summer Apple releases an iPhone.

    2007 - original iPhone - poop
    2008 - iPhone 3G - good
    2009 - iPhone 3GS - poop
    2010 - iPhone 4 - good

    2011 - iPhone 4.5 - poop
    2012 - iPhone 5 - good

    It's a poop/good alternating pattern. They release a crappy minor upgrade in the odd numbered years and full upgrades in the even numbered years. This is why I was so smart getting the iPhone 3G on release day. I'm on the schedule to get the maximum by always getting the good phone on the release date.
  • It's a poop/good alternating pattern. They release a crappy minor upgrade in the odd numbered years and full upgrades in the even numbered years. This is why I was so smart getting the iPhone 3G on release day. I'm on the schedule to get the maximum by always getting the good phone on the release date.
    So just the upgrade from 4 to 4.5 is poop, but the 4.5 is worth getting for those who never had one?

    I'm currently in prime situation with Verizon. My new-every-two is available and my contract ends in the beginning of February.
  • So just the upgrade from 4 to 4.5 is poop, but the 4.5 is worth getting for those who never had one?
    Would you have been happy getting an iPhone 3GS on the release day with a two year contract? That means you would still be using the 3GS right now, unable to upgrade until the summer, while everyone else has iPhone 4s.
  • 2008 - iPhone 3G - good
    2009 - iPhone 3GS - poop
    ummm, what?
  • 2008 - iPhone 3G - good
    2009 - iPhone 3GS - poop
    ummm, what?
    The iPhone 3GS was an extremely minor upgrade over the 3G. If you had a 3G it was still effectively top of the line even after the 3GS appeared. No compass, big deal. However, once the iPhone 4 appeared, the 3GS and 3G were both poop since they were now both completely left in the dust.
  • The iPhone 3GS was an extremely minor upgrade over the 3G. If you had a 3G it was still effectively top of the line even after the 3GS appeared. No compass, big deal. However, once the iPhone 4 appeared, the 3GS and 3G were both poop since they were now both completely left in the dust.
    No, the 3G was if anything a minor upgrade on the original, adding 3G data service. The 3GS had a much more powerful processor and is still a pretty good phone today.
  • Would you have been happy getting an iPhone 3GS on the release day with a two year contract? That means you would still be using the 3GS right now, unable to upgrade until the summer, while everyone else has iPhone 4s
    Scott, I have an LG Dare right now. It's a wannabe smart phone. It serves the purpose of giving me traffic updates at an "ok" speed.

    I really don't care to "Keep up with the Jones'" with certain things. A cell phone is one of them.

    I will more than likely be getting the iPhone 4 because of the offers/discounts and be very content with that for a long time. The upgrade from LG Dare to iPhone is large enough than having to wait for the iPhone 5.

    Also for existing Verizon customers we will be able to preorder iPhones on February 3rd vs the rest of the world with February 10th.
  • I'm with George in thinking that the incremental upgrades are not as big a deal as "good vs poop". I'm on the "poop" cycle, but I clearly remember that when 3GS hit and the app store was still shiny and new, all sorts of flashy games were coming out that my 3G friends would bitch and wine at how they ran so shittily and they wish they had a 3GS. The camera quality was also improved on the 3GS, as well as a bit better battery life.

    And to call the original iPhone poop... do you remember what the smartphone market looked like back then?!?! iPhone was the best option by far and could only be called poop if you were put off by the early $600 price tag.

    I am in a lucky situation in that I won the original iPhone in a raffle, then got $100 credit back when the price dropped, then unlocked it and sold for $250 on ebay to more than pay for my 3GS, so I still have not paid for a phone in many many years. Yes, I'd like an iPhone 4 right now but my 3GS still works great. I'll be getting a 4GS or a 5G or whatever the hell it will be called and I'll be very happy with that too.
  • The original iPhone was poop because it had no applications whatsoever. Windows, Palm, and Blackberry phones at the time all allowed installation of applications, and had for years. I got in line for the 3G because the app store opened the same day.
  • My personal recommendation is to wait until the summer, because I think that's when you'll get 4G (probably for AT&T and VZW).
  • I predict 4G will murder the battery, a lot like it did on the 3G.
  • My personal recommendation is to wait until the summer, because I think that's when you'll get 4G (probably for AT&T; and VZW).
    I 100% guarantee you won't see an iPhone 4G until at least 2012. AT&T; and T-Mobile don't have real 3G. They have HSDPA+, which is just slightly faster 3G. That's why the Verizon guy made a joke about calling their network 6G at the press conference today.

    Sprint is the only one right now with lots of actual 4G, but it's Wi-Max. Everyone else is going to use LTE for their 4G. Verizon is the furthest along with deploying LTE, but it is still extremely early stages. By 2012, Verizon LTE will be hot, but they'll charge an arm and a leg for it. Around that same time, AT&T; will be in early stages of LTE, but much further behind Verizon. Who knows wtf T-Mobile will be doing. Sucking as usual, but charging a good price.

    The original iPhone was not 3G, even though there were plenty of 3G networks at the time. Apple does not have a history of rushing to the more powerful and faster technologies. Add in the fact that there will be basically no real 4G outside of Sprint before 2012, and that pretty much seals it. In 2012 they will probably bring out an 4G LTE iPhone since that's the 4G most of the world is using, and there will be enough 4G network out there so that it actually works.
  • Sprint is the only one right now with lots of actual 4G, but it's Wi-Max.
    ... Which is software-upgradeable to LTE, unless I've been lied too.
  • edited January 2011
    This is why I was so smart
    What the majority of Scott's Predictions and analysis break down to.
    Post edited by Churba on
  • This is why I wassosmart
    What the majority of Scott's Predictions and analysis break down to.
    Hey, you don't see me predicting shit I don't know about.
  • Hey, you don't see me predicting shit I don't know about.
    I know, I'm just poking fun. To be fair, you're smarter than quite a decent portion of the US population.
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