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North Korea tests nuclear device

KatsuKatsu
edited October 2006 in News
From the BBC

I can only hope that Japan does not squander the golden opportunity that this represents. With the change in Japanese leadership, my hope is that PM Abe doesn't screw this up. However, with Japan's ineffectiveness at international politics I have many reservations.
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Comments

  • JasonJason
    edited October 2006
    What do you believe Japan should do? It clearly presents a security threat... will it mean military action on behalf of anyone?
    Post edited by Jason on
  • RymRym
    See, now here is a situation that warrants a response. We (the United States) invade and occupy Iraq on the flimsy intelligence that they might have possibly had a weapon of some kind, yet largely ignore a nation with a history of antagonism and a perfectly visible nuclear weapons program...

    I would be perfectly fine with some sort of covert operation to sabotage their efforts or cripple their military command infrastructure.
  • La Petit MortLa Petit Mort
    What should japan do?

    Call section 9!
  • La Petit MortLa Petit Mort
    Let them test the bomb on Korea damn it, it might as well blow them up.
  • AndrewAndrew
    edited October 2006
    Call section 9!
    Wow, I definitely read that in my head as "Call section nine factorial." Followed by a wtf, then a realization of "oh..."

    Hmm...If Jack Thompson is right about video games as instructional in the art of warfare, I need to play more defcon in order to perfect my global thermonuclear warfare strategies. Hopefully I can prevent as many U.S deaths as possible.
    Post edited by Andrew on
  • JasonJason
    See, now here is a situation that warrants a response. We (the United States) invade and occupy Iraq on the flimsy intelligence that theymighthave possibly had a weapon of some kind, yet largely ignore a nation with a history of antagonism and a perfectly visible nuclear weapons program...

    I would be perfectly fine with some sort of covert operation to sabotage their efforts or cripple their military command infrastructure.
    I agree completely, but there is no popular support for further military action during this presidency. And I don't see how any Democratic president elected can smear the Iraq offensive and then launch a far more risky vendetta against North Korea.

    We might gain allies for a U.N. peacekeeping mission, but once again, those forces are comprised of 90 percent American resources, both monetarily and in headcount.

    I think Kim Jong-Il knows this and is seizing the opportunity to become a nuclear power while our hands are tied behind our backs. Without breaking diplomatic ties or destroying the political careers of the leaders who would launch yet another war, we've been neutered by Iraq just like we were after Vietnam.
  • TheWhaleSharkTheWhaleShark
    edited October 2006
    It does seem to be a situation with no real solution at this time. Personally, I'm with Rym on some kind of covert operation to squash this initiative, but getting that done in the current political climate is nigh impossible.

    EDIT: The best solution: nuke 'em all.
    Post edited by TheWhaleShark on
  • SymmetrySymmetry
    Rym: I think you might be overlooking the practicalities of the situation. Sure, we had a much better reason to take out North Korea but:

    1) China went to war with us the last time we tried that.
    2) North Korea could and probably would fire a half million rounds of artillery into downtown Seoul in the first hour of a war.
  • RymRym
    edited October 2006
    1) China went to war with us the last time we tried that.
    If anything, I'll wager China is equally perturbed by the DPRK at the moment. If anyone, I'd be happiest if they were the ones to initiate such a covert operation. I don't think China will allow a new and unstable nuclear power to come together right at its borders.
    2) North Korea could and probably would fire a half million rounds of artillery into downtown Seoul in the first hour of a war.
    That's the main reason I'm much more in favour of espionage and sabotage. Furthermore, the "hostage situation" with Seoul wouldn't be that much of a deterrent to China. An invasion from the north could force the DPRK to realign its military. Attacking Seoul would only strengthen a Chinese army's position.
    Post edited by Rym on
  • JasonJason
    China publicly denounced N.Korea's actions, but you have to wonder how sincere they are. It all depends on how Westernized China really is after being exposed to some of our culture and allowing small-scale free market circles to form. But every scenario I can see has the U.S. and China as the major players in the next world war, and I think China would still be more willing to side with another communist dictatorship than with us. And if that sleeping bear is wakened, I don't think we can count on Japan, Pakistan, and India to stay neutral. Talk about a powder keg. Short of all the sanctions we can heap on them, the North Koreans know we're talking out our asses when it comes to some form of retaliation for their nuclear testing.
  • KieyKiey
    My friend was told me about the NK nuke last night, and said Japan would have one of their own in a month.

    I said, "nah, they could make one in a week. Really only a few days, they just need the materials. It'd take a week for them to make a Gundam... 5 days for a Zaku."

    But they should focus on making Gundams or lasers, not nukes... maybe Gundams with lasers!
  • JasonJason
    This could complicate things a bit more.
  • AndrewAndrew
    Within the next twenty years it could be very possible that China will become THE superpower of the world. They are extremely powerful in the economic market and I believe they own a large deal out U.S bonds (Up to 40% of our national debt I believe). With the rise of a small capitalist movement, it is only a matter of time until we get moved to the side in the power struggle of the world.
  • JasonJason
    They are only powerful as long as we buy their goods and maintain most favored nation status; but you also have to look at the mean comparative income of the Chinese population. It is still overwhelmingly agrarian and poverty-stricken.
  • KatsuKatsu
    Japan would be capable of having a working nuclear device within 6 months, at the latest. Ballistic missile capacity in probably the same amount of time or less, considering an already working space program. Having the nuke miniaturized to the point where it can be loaded on to the missile with a working on-board targeting and guidance system that has a modicum of evasive capability, probably a bit longer.

    But that's looking at the problem from a technological standpoint. Politically, I don't believe that Japan developing nuclear weapons is acceptable by either the Japanese public or the international community. It might, however, be used as a bluff to get China to force North Korea to tone down its bluster, as a nuclear-capable Japan would be highly undesirable to China.
  • KieyKiey
    According to CNN China has already come out against North Korea. I think the reason for this is that it is no longer a good idea for them to get into a war North Korea starts. They are starting to emerge as a huge economic power, and when economies do really well countries don't like to fight wars.

    But in an everyone vs NK, something bad could very potentially happen.
  • AlexAlex
    But in an everyone vs NK, something bad could very potentially happen.
    If, somehow, this actually came down to a fight, the fighting would render Korea a smoking ruin, regardless of what side the Chinese came down on. NK is a very small nation caught between several very large ones that already have nuclear arsenals (the US, Russia, and China to say the least). As militarized as they may be, if they tried to actually use a nuke in a warlike fashion, they'd be splatted like a bug. They and everyone else involved know this, and no one wants it to come to that.

    The test (assuming it is a real nuclear test, which seems to be far from clear at the moment) is a diplomatic bargaining tool, a reason for the rest of the world to take North Korea more seriously. The effectiveness of this tool will be determined by how and how much the rest of the world responds to the event. In this regard, the fact that China has already denounced the test seems like a pretty strong warning to Kim Jong-Il not to push his luck.
  • SymmetrySymmetry
    I've seen a lot of people saying that because the explosion seems to be relativly small (.5-2 kT includes most of the estimates I've seen) then NK's uranium probably wasn't very well refined.
  • RymRym
    Japan has just banned all North Korean imports, and furthermore has barred all ships of North Korean origin from their ports. Considering the sheer volume of trade normally ongoing between the two nations, this is a more serious blow than any UN-sponsored sanctions that may be forthcoming, and threatens to collapse the North Korean economy.

    Granted, collapsing the North Korean economy is a bit like collapsing a deflated balloon...
  • KilarneyKilarney
    Japan has just banned all North Korean imports, and furthermore has barred all ships of North Korean origin from their ports.
    I know nothing about trade relations between these two countries... but it seems hard to believe that there was much trade. Besides, can't North Korea still get everything they need from China?
  • RymRym
    Exports to Japan constitute some 13% of North Korea's foreign income. Many of their other trade relations took place through Japanese ports.
  • KilarneyKilarney
    The article I just read said that the two countries had about $200 million in trade per year. That sounds like a drop in the bucket - to Japan at least.
  • SymmetrySymmetry
    Wait, is that 13% of all of North Korea's foreign income, or just the legal part because I seem to remember hearing that North Korea got a large percentage of its foreign currency through illegal drugs. Of course, that'll probably be hit by this closing even more so.
  • RymRym
    That's just the legal part as known by the CIA. I have no idea how much they may or may not make off of heroin...
  • KilarneyKilarney
    Well, I suspect any illegal trade will continue since it was already err... illegal.
  • tuttle88tuttle88
    Don't worry China promiced us they would only use the uranium we're selling them for making power.
  • thaneofcawdorthaneofcawdor
    Don't worry China promiced us they would only use the uranium we're selling them for making power.
    ...ful nuclear bombs. That last bit was lost in the translation.
  • SymmetrySymmetry
    Hard to smuggle stuff when there aren't any boats going back and forth at all.
  • AprecheApreche
    Hard to smuggle stuff when there aren't any boats going back and forth at all.
    If you're smuggling from NK to Japan you will most likely go through China by land, and then take a boat. No, it's not easy to get away with it. That's why it's called smuggling.
  • KilarneyKilarney
    Yeah, I suspect the smugglers will figure something out. That's why they are called smugglers. It actually sounds like a good business to be in - demand will be up.
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