AAAARGH stupid Giants should have done pretty well against the Colts last night. Just came off a bye and the Colts have been playing crap lately.
Lost by 4 points on my fantasy thing so close....
You had confidence in the Giants after Cruz went out? I mean, we weren't going to win with him, we're definitely not going to win without him. This season is basically over. We're not a garbage team like the Bucs or Raiders, but we're definitely not making the playoffs.
The key on every single NYG Super Bowl championship team was a brutal defense, mostly focusing on the pass rush, combined with a power running game. It's the most basic and effective strategy in NFL football. Even today with all the rule changes punishing you for hitting the QB, it's still the best way to play.
On defense, if you can effectively pressure the quarterback just by rushing with 3 or 4, you can stop the inside run, and have enough people in coverage to force him to hold the ball and stop outside runs. The only offensive option they have left is to make quick risky passes that you will often pick off.
On offense, the power run game moves the ball down the field with low risk of turnovers. It also opens up the big passing plays. If the other team has to respect the run, you often just get man to man coverage. Play action gives your receivers the head start they need to get open.
The problem with this, is of course, that you need incredible talent to make it work. Your running backs have to be monsters who can repeatedly run between the tackles and get yardage. And just one won't do. You'll probably need two. You need multiple receivers that are actually good enough to evade man coverage. The other team's defense is also made up of pro players. And of course, you need a defense line that can scare the other teams QB on every play, without help from behind.
The G-Men just haven't had the roster to make it work since they won the SB in 2011. JPP is the biggest example of this. He's the only big defensive player still on the team. He was pretty much only good for one year. If he had the same performance every year that he had in his first, he'd be on the same level as JJ Watt. Nowadays you rarely even hear his name during the broadcast.
This year they changed their offense to suit the roster, but it's a pretty big transition. Injuries to the few good players left aren't helping. Don't expect much from the NYG for a few years. Our one strength is that our GM is actually really good at evaluating new players. If we stink it up, we'll draft really well. If top players get injured and released, we'll have money for free agents. It can definitely turn around in a hurry, but there's no hope for 2014.
Even today with all the rule changes punishing you for hitting the QB, it's still the best way to play.
On defense, if you can effectively pressure the quarterback just by rushing with 3 or 4, you can stop the inside run, and have enough people in coverage to force him to hold the ball and stop outside runs. The only offensive option they have left is to make quick risky passes that you will often pick off.
I'm feeling this more and more. Everyone talks about "the age of the quarterback" but I think it isn't enough to just have an otherworldly passer. Cf. 15-1 Packers, the Saints most seasons, basically Peyton Manning's entire career.
Let's look at the last few Superb Owls, shall we? 2014: Seahawks destroy the aforementioned Peyton Manning. Almost entirely with defense. 2013: Ravens. Joe Flacco certainly didn't carry the team. 2012: Giants and their pass rush, as Apreche detailed above. 2011: Packers. Aaron Rodgers is superhuman, but the defense plays great as well. 2010: Saints over (Peyton Manning's) Colts. Both great offenses, one had to win. 2009: Steelers over Cards. Defense beat Kurt Warner. 2008: Giants D and David Tyree's magical helmet beat the 18-0 Pats, with Tom Brady. 2007: Colts beat the Bears. For once, the QB team beats the Defense team. But the Bears actually suck, and shouldn't have been in the Superb Owl anyway. Everybody knows this. 2006: Steelers over Seahawks. Steel curtain. 2005: Pats over Eagles, close game. Brady acquires legend status, if he didn't already have it.
So from the eye test, I'd say 6 out of the last 10 Owl champions were teams with their identity tied up more in their D. 4 where the QB was the star of the show, and 2 of those were 8 and 10 years ago. Everyone is crying about the death of defense. I think it's alive and kicking.
Well, it's true and it's also not true. You see, it is the age of the QB. Things are so hard for defense these days that very few of them are any good. With most of the opposing defenses being complete garbage, it's your QB and offense scoring more points that matters in most games.
With the difficulty increase for defense, there are few defenses that are good. But those few that can make a difference despite obstacles in their way are the ones that make a difference. Suddenly the usual game plan of scoring a ton of points doesn't work because you have to actually play against a defense that is actually getting in your way regularly. And now you're fucked.
This is why you see a lot of teams dominate the regular season and then fail late in the playoffs. We're talking about less than 6 teams with valid defenses that also have enough offense to get into the playoffs to begin with. Offense gets you to the Bowl, but defense wins it.
Suddenly the usual game plan of scoring a ton of points doesn't work because you have to actually play against a defense that is actually getting in your way regularly. And now you're fucked.
This is why you see a lot of teams dominate the regular season and then fail late in the playoffs. We're talking about less than 6 teams with valid defenses that also have enough offense to get into the playoffs to begin with. Offense gets you to the Bowl, but defense wins it.
Here's the other thing to consider when it comes to the adage of defense winning championships. Once you get late in the playoffs every team has an incredible and elite offense that will score 3-7 points on most drives against even a good defense. In those games, the amazing offenses cancel each other out. The difference between the winner and the loser will be which one has the better defense. A big interception, forced fumble, sack, or even a special teams play will be what separates the winner from the loser.
Good example is when the Saints won the Super Bowl XLIV. They won the toss and elected to receive. At the half they were down 10-6. Then at the second half kickoff they pulled an onsides kick and recovered it. That turned the tide.
Or how about XLV. The reason the Packers won? Their defense got 3 turnovers while the Steelers got 0. The Steelers rushing game was actually way better and the passing games of both teams were relatively equal. Steelers also had more time of possession.
Look at last year's game. A complete blowout. But look at this:
Same number of first downs. Similar total yardage. Seattle rushing was superior, but Denver passing was also superior, basically canceling out. What was the difference? The Seattle defense made turnovers and stops, despite giving up yards. It mattered enough to make the score 43-8.
Trying to use recent Bowls as examples since older games had different rules.
There's one other factor as well. Defense is way harder than offense. Think about how quickly you get tired as an adult playing tag. Now imagine playing tag with professional athletes. It's ridiculously hard, even for other professionals. This is why people talk about offensive time of possession being important. You keep the defense out on the field and don't let them rest. You never hear anyone talk about the offense getting tired, because offense doesn't really get tired. That's also one of the reasons why a hurry up offense is effective.
In the regular season defensive players aren't going to really be able to give 100%. They have to save some so they don't die. They have to do a satisfactory job on average plays, and use their energy to focus on the important plays.
In the playoffs, defense doesn't have the rest of the season to worry about. Every game could be the last. They can, and often must, give their all on every single down. Prior to the Super Bowl, teams have two weeks of rest. Suddenly offense isn't as easy in that game as it is in every other game of the year. They know after that game is over they have weeks or months to recover. All those elixirs they were saving for the final boss are getting used.
I love watching groups of football players seeing a ball on the floor, and then slowly coming to the realization it's still in play. Because you can't see their faces, it becomes the perfect ideal of physical comedy and pantomime.
Sportscenter, "Also, fun fact: Kaelin Clay, who dropped the ball on this play, went to the same high school as DeSean Jackson, who's done it multiple times."
Except there is almost no way we are making the playoffs, so who cares?
That is not an excuse. The Packers, for example, have only been in the top half of round 1 twice since drafting Aaron Rodgers at 24 in 2006. In that same time frame the Packers have one a Super Bowl and only once lost their division.
NFL drafts are usually deep enough to supply an entire first round of at least starter caliber players. "Who is there to draft?". Everyone. Hell, the year we acquired Jordy Nelson, he was our first pick that year at 36th overall (4th pick in the second round) and see how he has turned out.
Marshawn Lynch does not like talking to the media. He is extremely nervous and uncomfortable when talking to reporters. He was recently fined $100,000 for not speaking to the media last week. He was fined $50,000 last year.
The best interview he had was during Super Bowl Week with Deion Sanders:
Much props to him for just saying one word answers of mostly "Yeah" and giving a shout out for his charity.
The Dolphins make me cry. In a very crowded field of AFC wildcard teams, the Dolphins had a fantastic tiebreaker situation due to their 4-2 conference record. Blowing a big lead late to the Broncos means they've blown three big late leads, losing to the Broncos, Packers, and Lions all by a combined 10 points in those last-minute drive situations.
If they'd won even one of those games, they'd still be in the pack. Now they're 1 game back with a ton of teams ahead of them. The only hope is the fact that they're set to play the Jets *twice*, the Vikings, and the Ravens, all of which are beatable, and would put them at 10 wins and likely into some form of tie for the second Wildcard spot.
They also play the Patriots again (who they beat in week 1), but the Dolphins are riddled with injuries now, so I don't see them sweeping the Pats, or really going very far the rest of this season anyway. But a man can hope.
The sideline reporter job is the most sexist in the NFL. It's the token female appearance on the TV broadcasts, which seems like a step in the right direction. But I've noticed whoever it is, she always reports what male players and coaches have said about an event. She never has an opinion of her own. Meanwhile, most of the male members of the broadcast (except the direct commentary team who report on the immediate action) do nothing except give their opinion on any and all subjects.
Has anyone else noticed this? Probably. If not, from now on, you will too.
Comments
Lost by 4 points on my fantasy thing
The key on every single NYG Super Bowl championship team was a brutal defense, mostly focusing on the pass rush, combined with a power running game. It's the most basic and effective strategy in NFL football. Even today with all the rule changes punishing you for hitting the QB, it's still the best way to play.
On defense, if you can effectively pressure the quarterback just by rushing with 3 or 4, you can stop the inside run, and have enough people in coverage to force him to hold the ball and stop outside runs. The only offensive option they have left is to make quick risky passes that you will often pick off.
On offense, the power run game moves the ball down the field with low risk of turnovers. It also opens up the big passing plays. If the other team has to respect the run, you often just get man to man coverage. Play action gives your receivers the head start they need to get open.
The problem with this, is of course, that you need incredible talent to make it work. Your running backs have to be monsters who can repeatedly run between the tackles and get yardage. And just one won't do. You'll probably need two. You need multiple receivers that are actually good enough to evade man coverage. The other team's defense is also made up of pro players. And of course, you need a defense line that can scare the other teams QB on every play, without help from behind.
The G-Men just haven't had the roster to make it work since they won the SB in 2011. JPP is the biggest example of this. He's the only big defensive player still on the team. He was pretty much only good for one year. If he had the same performance every year that he had in his first, he'd be on the same level as JJ Watt. Nowadays you rarely even hear his name during the broadcast.
This year they changed their offense to suit the roster, but it's a pretty big transition. Injuries to the few good players left aren't helping. Don't expect much from the NYG for a few years. Our one strength is that our GM is actually really good at evaluating new players. If we stink it up, we'll draft really well. If top players get injured and released, we'll have money for free agents. It can definitely turn around in a hurry, but there's no hope for 2014.
Let's look at the last few Superb Owls, shall we?
2014: Seahawks destroy the aforementioned Peyton Manning. Almost entirely with defense.
2013: Ravens. Joe Flacco certainly didn't carry the team.
2012: Giants and their pass rush, as Apreche detailed above.
2011: Packers. Aaron Rodgers is superhuman, but the defense plays great as well.
2010: Saints over (Peyton Manning's) Colts. Both great offenses, one had to win.
2009: Steelers over Cards. Defense beat Kurt Warner.
2008: Giants D and David Tyree's magical helmet beat the 18-0 Pats, with Tom Brady.
2007: Colts beat the Bears. For once, the QB team beats the Defense team. But the Bears actually suck, and shouldn't have been in the Superb Owl anyway. Everybody knows this.
2006: Steelers over Seahawks. Steel curtain.
2005: Pats over Eagles, close game. Brady acquires legend status, if he didn't already have it.
So from the eye test, I'd say 6 out of the last 10 Owl champions were teams with their identity tied up more in their D. 4 where the QB was the star of the show, and 2 of those were 8 and 10 years ago. Everyone is crying about the death of defense. I think it's alive and kicking.
With the difficulty increase for defense, there are few defenses that are good. But those few that can make a difference despite obstacles in their way are the ones that make a difference. Suddenly the usual game plan of scoring a ton of points doesn't work because you have to actually play against a defense that is actually getting in your way regularly. And now you're fucked.
This is why you see a lot of teams dominate the regular season and then fail late in the playoffs. We're talking about less than 6 teams with valid defenses that also have enough offense to get into the playoffs to begin with. Offense gets you to the Bowl, but defense wins it.
However this chart has some interesting data: http://www.nfl.com/features/freakonomics/episode-15 Too bad the chart hasn't been updated for the last 3 years.
Good example is when the Saints won the Super Bowl XLIV. They won the toss and elected to receive. At the half they were down 10-6. Then at the second half kickoff they pulled an onsides kick and recovered it. That turned the tide.
Or how about XLV. The reason the Packers won? Their defense got 3 turnovers while the Steelers got 0. The Steelers rushing game was actually way better and the passing games of both teams were relatively equal. Steelers also had more time of possession.
Look at last year's game. A complete blowout. But look at this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_XLVIII#Statistical_comparison
Same number of first downs. Similar total yardage. Seattle rushing was superior, but Denver passing was also superior, basically canceling out. What was the difference? The Seattle defense made turnovers and stops, despite giving up yards. It mattered enough to make the score 43-8.
Trying to use recent Bowls as examples since older games had different rules.
There's one other factor as well. Defense is way harder than offense. Think about how quickly you get tired as an adult playing tag. Now imagine playing tag with professional athletes. It's ridiculously hard, even for other professionals. This is why people talk about offensive time of possession being important. You keep the defense out on the field and don't let them rest. You never hear anyone talk about the offense getting tired, because offense doesn't really get tired. That's also one of the reasons why a hurry up offense is effective.
In the regular season defensive players aren't going to really be able to give 100%. They have to save some so they don't die. They have to do a satisfactory job on average plays, and use their energy to focus on the important plays.
In the playoffs, defense doesn't have the rest of the season to worry about. Every game could be the last. They can, and often must, give their all on every single down. Prior to the Super Bowl, teams have two weeks of rest. Suddenly offense isn't as easy in that game as it is in every other game of the year. They know after that game is over they have weeks or months to recover. All those elixirs they were saving for the final boss are getting used.
This is one of the funniest examples.
My second favorite part is when someone who isn't supposed to have the ball (e.g., the big/fat guy) gets the ball and starts running it.
My third favorite is a red faced coach screaming on the sidelines.
Edit: Also
NFL drafts are usually deep enough to supply an entire first round of at least starter caliber players. "Who is there to draft?". Everyone. Hell, the year we acquired Jordy Nelson, he was our first pick that year at 36th overall (4th pick in the second round) and see how he has turned out.
http://now.nfl.com/play/46e5a346-811b-4406-91b0-e8799ff89653?id=46e5a346-811b-4406-91b0-e8799ff89653
Backstory:
Marshawn Lynch does not like talking to the media. He is extremely nervous and uncomfortable when talking to reporters. He was recently fined $100,000 for not speaking to the media last week. He was fined $50,000 last year.
The best interview he had was during Super Bowl Week with Deion Sanders:
Much props to him for just saying one word answers of mostly "Yeah" and giving a shout out for his charity.
And boo on Washington for not beating the 49ers.
If they'd won even one of those games, they'd still be in the pack. Now they're 1 game back with a ton of teams ahead of them. The only hope is the fact that they're set to play the Jets *twice*, the Vikings, and the Ravens, all of which are beatable, and would put them at 10 wins and likely into some form of tie for the second Wildcard spot.
They also play the Patriots again (who they beat in week 1), but the Dolphins are riddled with injuries now, so I don't see them sweeping the Pats, or really going very far the rest of this season anyway. But a man can hope.
Has anyone else noticed this? Probably. If not, from now on, you will too.