If you don't trust the FDIC, why should you trust the market? You'd be trusting them to keep honest records and deal with you honestly when you tried to cash out.
You mean people will try to cheat you for personal gain? *gasp*
I've heard a fair number of people that have been laid off recently... You can have all the skill in the world, but it won't be worth anything unless someone is willing to *buy*. I'm sure with your high salaries, an executive would chose to cut you before entertaining a pay cut for themselves.
I couldn't have made that statement better myself. The Controller's Office of the medical school where I work had no choice but to lay off several highly paid employees due to deficit spending three years ago. The lower-level staff were surprised as we were sure that one-third of the support staff would be given severance and asked to leave, but as the average salary for data entry in 2004 was $25,000.00 USD cutting us out wouldn't have made much financial sense. It was several middle-management employees (those who had degrees and who earned $40-50,000.00 USD) who were told after Christmas that their positions were terminated. One of the former accountants remained unemployed for months because there were no decent openings in her field.
Based on this I second Spiritfiend in that sometimes it's good to be a stump when the layoff axe swings rather than a "tall oak". A meager salary will mean jack and shit when upper management and human resources reviews the payroll lists.
Like I said, I remember the days in the early 90's when the tech industry bottomed out in the Boston area. NOBODY was changing jobs, and those that were laid off were competing against hundreds upon hundreds of other applicants for the few jobs that were available. And trust me... these were highly skilled people.
Anything that a company can cut back on can be hurt in a recession. This includes the IT budget. Just because you can weather the storm, doesn't mean that it's a good thing.
Having said all of that... people have been predicting financial collapse for years. It sells books. We're bound to have a recession someday, but hopefully it won't be a depression.
I'm starting to get really worried about the dollar. Thaed's economist friend doesn't seem that worried, but everything I've read (and from reputable sources) seems very worried.
Like I said, I remember the days in the early 90's when the tech industry bottomed out in the Boston area. NOBODY was changing jobs, and those that were laid off were competing against hundreds upon hundreds of other applicants for the few jobs that were available. And trust me... these were highly skilled people.
The early '90s tech crash was a unique event. People were investing like crazy in trendy new Internet businesses before those businesses knew how to make money. This is the second go, and we know how to make money this time, and we know not to do stupid IPOs. Most of the people who lost their jobs that first time were high school kids who got jobs writing the HTMLs and the CGIs because nobody else knew how. Those kids have since gone to college and gotten real jobs. All the entrepreneurs from that time period are still around, and are still loaded. Most of the major players in the scene are people who came out of the '90s bust.
Also, I notice how you mention the Boston area specifically. One key factor in avoiding trouble is being flexible. Part of the reason I don't worry is because I am willing and able to go anywhere and do almost anything. I have no self-imposed geographic limitations in terms of where I sell my labor. This is why I have no worries about quitting, getting laid off, or being fired. I purposefully moved to New York City where there are a zillion jobs, and always will be. A lot of people have a hard time finding a job simply because they are unwilling to move. When you are willing to live anywhere, finding a job in almost any field becomes a zillion times easier.
Lastly, if there is one thing I've learned about the economy is that it is a reflection of people's feelings. It's not so much that the economy is going to crash, so people start being afraid. It's that because people are afraid of a crash, one will happen. If people stay optimistic and confident, and act as if the economy is terrific, the economy will be terrific. Economics is all about trying to predict how people will feel, and nobody has any idea of how to do that.
This is the second go, and we know how to make money this time,
Don't you think that there will be a major shake-out in the web 2.0 world at some point? It seems like this world can only support so many twitters, pownces, etc.
This is the second go, and we know how to make money this time,
Don't you think that there will be a major shake-out in the web 2.0 world at some point? It seems like this world can only support so many twitters, pownces, etc.
Heck... I'm even totally sick of Digg.
How exactly is this going to happen? None of them are public companies. The only people who can get hurt are a handful of silicon valley venture capitalists. Since there are no IPOs anymore (many reasons for this) all of these Twitters, Pownces, etc. either disappear, or they get bought by someone who actually has money. Google, News Corp., Yahoo, Microsoft, etc. make plenty of money. Buying a few unprofitable Internet businesses will not even phase them, even if they are complete disasters. I'll start worrying when it looks like the big boys are in trouble.
Don't you think that there will be a major shake-out in the web 2.0 world at some point?
Oh, there will be, but it won't have any real effect in the long run. The web 2.0 people will just move on to something else with the contacts and skills they have now. Those companies don't have a lot of employees, so the impact of their eventual collapse will be more like a whimper.
If people stay optimistic and confident, and act as if the economy is terrific, the economy will be terrific.
It's impossible to control the hearts and minds of people in hard times, especially when they lose their jobs, or are forced to take a job they don't want.
If people stay optimistic and confident, and act as if the economy is terrific, the economy will be terrific.
It's impossible to control the hearts and minds of people in hard times, especially when they lose their jobs, or are forced to take a job they don't want.
It does ring pretty hollow.
You say you lost your house in a foreclosure, you were laid off from your job and can't find another, you need to file for bankruptcy but can't because of the new rules, you're sick and you have no healthcare, your kid was killed in Iraq, and now your wife is leaving you? Well: Don't worry, be happy!
You say you lost your house in a foreclosure, you were laid off from your job and can't find another, you need to file for bankruptcy but can't because of the new rules, you're sick and you have no healthcare, your kid was killed in Iraq, and now your wife is leaving you? Well: Don't worry, be happy!
Actually, yeah. I'd pack up everything I owned, cash out whatever assets I had left, and just leave. If I could afford it, I'd fly overseas somewhere warm enough not to freeze to death and take my chances. Barring that, I'd join the Peace Corps or some other international aid agency. Barring that, I'd join the French Foreign Legion or some other similar body.
Basically, I'd have the opportunity to toss off all of my worldly concerns and do something crazy, as the opportunity cost of such a thing would now be nearly zero. It's a chance to start a completely new life.
*Sigh* Did you read the "sick" part? Did you read the "need to file bankruptcy" part? You're too sick to travel, and your creditors are at the door.
Ok, too sick to travel? Can I walk? Is it terminal? Is it chronic?
Bankruptcy isn't a concern, since I'm going to liquidate my assets and possibly run off anyway. Creditors take weeks to actually hurt me, while I plan to escape in some fashion in days.
Look at the list of horrible circumstances you had to come up with to find one where there is no hope. Sure, life can get pretty bad, but really that bad? It seems that if even one of those terrible things were not true, that there would be hope and a chance of a way out. In other words, it would be ludicrously rare for there to be an actual situation so terrible, especially for someone as well off as a US citizen.
Another thing I think is a problem with your argument is that you are presenting consequences as if they were problems. Foreclosure, losing your job, losing your wife, illness, these are all consequences. Problems in life can be solved, mitigated, or avoided. Consequences are unavoidable. They are the results of your actions. Granted, there is some randomness and chance in there. The world is not under your control, but you can't tell me that a situation with absolutely no hope whatsoever is likely to come about for someone who was acting smartly in the first place.
Asking "What do you do if you are bankrupt?" is almost the same as asking "What if you're in jail because you robbed a bank?" The answer is you're fucked. You just have to suffer the consequences of your actions.
The world is not under your control, but you can't tell me that a situation with absolutely no hope whatsoever is likely to come about for someone who was acting smartly in the first place.
Born in Ethiopia. Dirt poor. Born without legs. Thatch hut. Malaria. Parents die.
How exactly could acting smartly help you out there? Those are indeed problems and not consequences.
Another thing I think is a problem with your argument is that you are presenting consequences as if they were problems. Foreclosure, losing your job, losing your wife, illness, these are all consequences. Problems in life can be solved, mitigated, or avoided. Consequences are unavoidable. They are the results of your actions. Granted, there is some randomness and chance in there. The world is not under your control, but you can't tell me that a situation with absolutely no hope whatsoever is likely to come about for someone who was acting smartly in the first place.
Many smart people with good plans lost their houses in the last depression. If there was another, as we've been discussing in this thread, many more smart people who have planned very well and made no mistakes will find themselves losing their homes, jobs, and healthcare. That kind of naturally leads to marital strife, which leads to divorce more often than not. Illness can occur as a result of losing job, house, and spouse. All this stuff could have happened, not as a result of the bad decisions for which you have no mercy, but as a result of the depression.
The world is not under your control, but you can't tell me that a situation with absolutely no hope whatsoever is likely to come about for someone who was acting smartly in the first place.
Born in Ethiopia. Dirt poor. Born without legs. Thatch hut. Malaria. Parents die.
How exactly could acting smartly help you out there? Those are indeed problems and not consequences.
Two things.
First off, there is often hope in reality where there is none on paper. Take for example Hotel Rwanda. Yes, it's dramatized in the movie, but it is largely a true story. In the worst possible of circumstances, one guy did the best he could. Remember, there are people alive today who escaped the Khmer Rouge. There are people alive today who survived the holocaust. As Rym said, even in the worst imaginable situation, the only way to guarantee failure is to stop striving and continue caring. Even if you do end up failing, at least you can rest in peace knowing that your failure was absolutely fault of your own, and have no regrets.
Now, let me make up a situation. You are an astronaut. You are in fact, the best astronaut ever. You know everything you need to know, and more. However, during a spacewalk there is a malfunction that nobody could possibly have foreseen. The result is that you are floating off into space with absolutely no realistic chance of being rescued. You will float away until your air runs out. It doesn't get much more hopeless than that. What will you do in this situation? Answer this, and we will see what kind of person you really are.
This thread is continuing the "I want you to say your screwed" which it seems people also wanted to hear in the friendship thread. It's just not going to happen. Now, back to the issue in hand, if the world market starts to enter a depression like atmosphere what should you do and is this a situation that could occur again. (which I realize it can't happen the same way again but is the market getting to this point.
Now, let me make up a situation. You are an astronaut. You are in fact, the best astronaut ever. You know everything you need to know, and more. However, during a spacewalk there is a malfunction that nobody could possibly have foreseen. The result is that you are floating off into space with absolutely no realistic chance of being rescued. You will float away until your air runs out. It doesn't get much more hopeless than that. What will you do in this situation? Answer this, and we will see what kind of person you really are.
I would use that lint and that paper clip to create a intergalactic communicator in the hopes that aliens will stop by and rescue me barring the lint and paper clip, I'd probably take in the awesome view.
Comments
My plan is gold-plated lead bricks.
I couldn't have made that statement better myself. The Controller's Office of the medical school where I work had no choice but to lay off several highly paid employees due to deficit spending three years ago. The lower-level staff were surprised as we were sure that one-third of the support staff would be given severance and asked to leave, but as the average salary for data entry in 2004 was $25,000.00 USD cutting us out wouldn't have made much financial sense. It was several middle-management employees (those who had degrees and who earned $40-50,000.00 USD) who were told after Christmas that their positions were terminated. One of the former accountants remained unemployed for months because there were no decent openings in her field.
Based on this I second Spiritfiend in that sometimes it's good to be a stump when the layoff axe swings rather than a "tall oak". A meager salary will mean jack and shit when upper management and human resources reviews the payroll lists.
Anything that a company can cut back on can be hurt in a recession. This includes the IT budget. Just because you can weather the storm, doesn't mean that it's a good thing.
Having said all of that... people have been predicting financial collapse for years. It sells books. We're bound to have a recession someday, but hopefully it won't be a depression.
I'm starting to get really worried about the dollar. Thaed's economist friend doesn't seem that worried, but everything I've read (and from reputable sources) seems very worried.
Also, I notice how you mention the Boston area specifically. One key factor in avoiding trouble is being flexible. Part of the reason I don't worry is because I am willing and able to go anywhere and do almost anything. I have no self-imposed geographic limitations in terms of where I sell my labor. This is why I have no worries about quitting, getting laid off, or being fired. I purposefully moved to New York City where there are a zillion jobs, and always will be. A lot of people have a hard time finding a job simply because they are unwilling to move. When you are willing to live anywhere, finding a job in almost any field becomes a zillion times easier.
Lastly, if there is one thing I've learned about the economy is that it is a reflection of people's feelings. It's not so much that the economy is going to crash, so people start being afraid. It's that because people are afraid of a crash, one will happen. If people stay optimistic and confident, and act as if the economy is terrific, the economy will be terrific. Economics is all about trying to predict how people will feel, and nobody has any idea of how to do that.
Heck... I'm even totally sick of Digg.
Pet grammar peeve. Carry on.
You say you lost your house in a foreclosure, you were laid off from your job and can't find another, you need to file for bankruptcy but can't because of the new rules, you're sick and you have no healthcare, your kid was killed in Iraq, and now your wife is leaving you? Well: Don't worry, be happy!
Basically, I'd have the opportunity to toss off all of my worldly concerns and do something crazy, as the opportunity cost of such a thing would now be nearly zero. It's a chance to start a completely new life.
So yes: don't worry and be happy.
Bankruptcy isn't a concern, since I'm going to liquidate my assets and possibly run off anyway. Creditors take weeks to actually hurt me, while I plan to escape in some fashion in days.
As long as I can walk, I can continue.
Another thing I think is a problem with your argument is that you are presenting consequences as if they were problems. Foreclosure, losing your job, losing your wife, illness, these are all consequences. Problems in life can be solved, mitigated, or avoided. Consequences are unavoidable. They are the results of your actions. Granted, there is some randomness and chance in there. The world is not under your control, but you can't tell me that a situation with absolutely no hope whatsoever is likely to come about for someone who was acting smartly in the first place.
Asking "What do you do if you are bankrupt?" is almost the same as asking "What if you're in jail because you robbed a bank?" The answer is you're fucked. You just have to suffer the consequences of your actions.
How exactly could acting smartly help you out there? Those are indeed problems and not consequences.
First off, there is often hope in reality where there is none on paper. Take for example Hotel Rwanda. Yes, it's dramatized in the movie, but it is largely a true story. In the worst possible of circumstances, one guy did the best he could. Remember, there are people alive today who escaped the Khmer Rouge. There are people alive today who survived the holocaust. As Rym said, even in the worst imaginable situation, the only way to guarantee failure is to stop striving and continue caring. Even if you do end up failing, at least you can rest in peace knowing that your failure was absolutely fault of your own, and have no regrets.
Now, let me make up a situation. You are an astronaut. You are in fact, the best astronaut ever. You know everything you need to know, and more. However, during a spacewalk there is a malfunction that nobody could possibly have foreseen. The result is that you are floating off into space with absolutely no realistic chance of being rescued. You will float away until your air runs out. It doesn't get much more hopeless than that. What will you do in this situation? Answer this, and we will see what kind of person you really are.