Hahahahahaha! America loses their AAA credit rating... Now it's only AA+...
That's great and all, if it actually mattered. Especially since S&P; have been informed that there numbers were way off, and are currently redoing the math to make sure their decision was the right one.
I think it's just the fact that a rating agency was willing to downgrade America in the first place. That's what matters, much like airlines and their safety records... They have disasters on very few occasions but people still fly with them.
However, once you've been marked your clean record is gone forever! And it gives precedence for it to happen again or go lower...
*whisper* I know Americans are touchy about Obama, but it happen during his watch... Just sayin', that's all...
That's why I fly QANTAS the only airline to have a spotless record... Dustin Hoffman said so!
That's why I fly QANTAS the only airline to have a spotless record... Dustin Hoffman said so!
Actually, there is a different reason for that - Qantas has indeed had incidents, and fatal crashes(though the last fatal crash was in the fifties), and three prop planes destroyed. But they've never, ever lost a jet airliner - because they will spend absolute shitloads of money to make a broken plane airworthy again. One particular incident I recall was where they had an overrun in Bangkok, ended up on a golf course, totaled the plane - Front gear was shoved up into the fuselage, nose damage, engines were fucked to bits, so on. That plane - after extensive work - is still flying.
Also, they had a passenger plane shot down by the Japanese in 1942, a flying boat, but they can't really be blamed for that. Qantas, that is not the Japanese. All in all, including that, they've had twelve fatal crashes.
Actually, there is a different reason for that - Qantas has indeed had incidents, and fatal crashes(though the last fatal crash was in the fifties), and three prop planes destroyed. But they've never, ever lost a jet airliner - because they will spend absolute shitloads of money to make a broken plane airworthy again.
Well, GENERALLY, no more than any major airline(I've flown on planes older than I am with some regularity), but a plane that has an incident could be compared - Though, to their credit, they don't have a lot of Major incidents, either.
So, I ever since the USA got downgraded I started thinking, if "STD and Poor's" is an all powerful organization that can decided the credit rating of every nation. Well, kind of it turns out there are three of then. So far the other 2 still regard us in a triple A rating, and it looks like "STD and Poor's" is the most shady of them all. So far have decided to go back to the old saying that "The only thing [I] have to fear is fear itself". Thank you FDR and Rachel Maddow to give me perspective of our current economic situation :P
If S&P gives a bad rating, it will cause suffering. If they keep the good rating, there will be less economic hardship. Even if the US does rightfully deserve a worse rating, why not lie and give it a better rating anyway? Just like in Brazil when they defeated inflation by inventing the Real, they can improve an economy with lies. So much of economics simply has to do with psychology and confidence. If enough people believe the economy is good, they will save less, which will make the economy good. They are self fulfilling prophecies. So why don't economists and such just lie to make everyone believe the economy is awesome, even when it isn't?
So much of economics simply has to do with psychology and confidence. If enough people believe the economy is good, they will save less, which will make the economy good. They are self fulfilling prophecies. So why don't economists and such just lie to make everyone believe the economy is awesome, even when it isn't?
Where is the confidence is everyone lies? If someone says the U.S. is AAA where in fact it's really a BB, why should I have any confidence in what they say?
Look, even if the U.S. gets downgraded by the other firms, everyone is still going to invest in the U.S. There is no where else to go. The EU is going into debt one by one and is actually quite scarier in terms of the threat it poses to the world economy opposed to the U.S. If investors were truly worried about the U.S., they'd raise interest rates for U.S. bonds, but the 10-year yield is still only 2.58%.
So why don't economists and such just lie to make everyone believe the economy is awesome
Because they can't make everyone believe that, as there's too many other sources of information. The other issue with lying is that you will be found out, and the consequences that come about as a result - e.g. losing your job.
Worse still, though, if such a lie sends the economy up, and the lie is later found out, the economy is just going to crash back down even harder.
Where is the confidence is everyone lies? If someone says the U.S. is AAA where in fact it's really a BB, why should I have any confidence in what they say?
Because they can't make everyone believe that, as there's too many other sources of information. The other issue with lying is that you will be found out, and the consequences that come about as a result - e.g. losing your job.
Look at the shit that Fox news has been able to get so many people to believe. If you can get the media to report that the economy is awesome, the economy will become awesome. The economy itself is the effect of people's attitudes, not the cause.
For example, CNBC can report entirely accurate financial information and numbers. Yet, if they get all of their anchors and guests to act as if the economy is awesome, that can actually result in the economy becoming awesome.
You might think, oh some smart guy will see the numbers and realize everything is in the shitter. Fine, that guy sells meanwhile most people buy because they have confidence. The lie gave them confidence. Now the smart move based on the numbers was actually a dumb move! The economy isn't like the weather that we have no control over. Our feelings of confidence ARE the economy. If you can get people to believe in the US economy, by any means, the US economy will improve and the dollar will increase in value.
You might think, oh some smart guy will see the numbers and realize everything is in the shitter. Fine, that guy sells meanwhile most people buy because they have confidence. The lie gave them confidence. Now the smart move based on the numbers was actually a dumb move! The economy isn't like the weather that we have no control over. Our feelings of confidence ARE the economy. If you can get people to believe in the US economy, by any means, the US economy will improve and the dollar will increase in value.
Lying to people about their economic state is exactly what caused the housing bubble and the economic collapse of 2008.
>local numbers are different Okay. Whatever. Southern Europe is an entirely different world in case you don't know. They buy water in stores for crying out loud.
Also, I do not see how lowering the US to double-A is going to help pay off debt. It's the least of the worries present. Just raise those fucking taxes and cut those budgets and be done with it. Half a decade of eating half a loaf of bread instead of a whole is better than eating no bread for a whole decade.
>local numbers are different Okay. Whatever. Southern Europe is an entirely different world in case you don't know. They buy water in stores for crying out loud.
I'm sure Germany will have something to say when they are forced to either bail out all these EU countries or leave them to rot on the vine.
Also, I do not see how lowering the US to double-A is going to help pay off debt. It's the least of the worries present.
AA+, not AA. Furthermore, DEBT IS NOT BAD! In fact, you actually want a healthy amount of debt to grow. The trouble comes with your debt to GDP ratio. If it's somewhere over 80-90%, then you need to start looking into your budget. However, the U.S. debt crisis right now is not the greatest worry. Job and general economic growth vastly outweighs our debt/deficit issue.
>local numbers are different Okay. Whatever. Southern Europe is an entirely different world in case you don't know. They buy water in stores for crying out loud.
There is a difference between medicine and economics. If you have pneumonia, believing you don't have penumonia will not cure it. You will die. The economy is belief. The value of things is determined by people's feelings. If you believe the economy is good, it will be good because you believe it. Also, when people believe the economy is good, they exhibit behaviors, such as increased spending and increased risk taking, that cause the economy to improve.
There is a difference between medicine and economics. If you have pneumonia, believing you don't have penumonia will not cure it. You will die. The economy is belief. The value of things is determined by people's feelings. If you believe the economy is good, it will be good because you believe it. Also, when people believe the economy is good, they exhibit behaviors, such as increased spending and increased risk taking, that cause the economy to improve.
There is a difference between medicine and economics. If you have pneumonia, believing you don't have penumonia will not cure it. You will die. The economy is belief. The value of things is determined by people's feelings. If you believe the economy is good, it will be good because you believe it. Also, when people believe the economy is good, they exhibit behaviors, such as increased spending and increased risk taking, that cause the economy to improve.
Don't you think that if it was that easy, they would have done that? You are making an extremely complex system out to be utterly simplistic. This isn't fucking My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic. Banks don't shit rainbows and unicorns on command.
Don't you think that if it was that easy, they would have done that?
They did it in Brazil. Sometimes the only way to fix something is a with a big sudden change. The US government makes it impossible to have any big sudden changes. Not since FDR has the government done anything that can be classified as a big sudden change. Oh, but wait, FDR's shit worked, didn't it?
They did it in Brazil. Sometimes the only way to fix something is a with a big sudden change. The US government makes it impossible to have any big sudden changes. Not since FDR has the government done anything that can be classified as a big sudden change. Oh, but wait, FDR's shit worked, didn't it?
The U.S. isn't suffering crippling deflation. Creating a virtual currency won't magically fix a jobs problem. Don't take an isolated case and try to apply it to everything. Additionally, lying about the situation isn't a big change. Stop conflating multiple arguments.
The U.S. isn't suffering crippling deflation. Creating a virtual currency won't magically fix a jobs problem. Don't take an isolated case and try to apply it to everything. Additionally, lying about the situation isn't a big change. Stop conflating multiple arguments.
First of all, Brazil was suffering inflation, not deflation. Secondly, I'm not suggesting we do the exact same solution. Obviously a different problem calls for a different solution. The point is that no matter the solution, they had the balls to take a big risk, and it worked. Even if it fails, the best solutions we know to our problems involve taking big risks. Taking tiny steps, as we have been for decades, will guarantee mediocrity at best and catastrophe at worst. We need to do something big, even if it fails at least we tried.
A massive marketing campaign to get people to behave as if the economy were good will cause the economy to be good. It's exactly the kind of big crazy idea that might work and nobody will ever try.
Secondly, I'm not suggesting we do the exact same solution. Obviously a different problem calls for a different solution. The point is that no matter the solution, they had the balls to take a big risk, and it worked. Even if it fails, the best solutions we know to our problems involve taking big risks. Taking tiny steps, as we have been for decades, will guarantee mediocrity at best and catastrophe at worst. We need to do something big, even if it fails at least we tried.
A massive marketing campaign to get people to behave as if the economy were good will cause the economy to be good. It's exactly the kind of big crazy idea that might work and nobody will ever try.
Something big, yes, I have no problem with this. However, this is a different argument than the one you were making where you said everybody should lie.
However, this is a different argument than the one you were making where you said everybody should lie.
Lying is the best big idea I can come up with. It has the benefit that we don't need the feds to make it happen. Economists can just do it on their own.
Question, how are you going get people who don't have jobs or are extremely leveraged to spend money?
Even if you lie to them and give them free credit to start spending again. You just kicking the can down the road and making the problem worst (expanding the debt).
Lying is the best big idea I can come up with. It has the benefit that we don't need the feds to make it happen. Economists can just do it on their own.
Comments
However, once you've been marked your clean record is gone forever! And it gives precedence for it to happen again or go lower...
*whisper* I know Americans are touchy about Obama, but it happen during his watch... Just sayin', that's all...
That's why I fly QANTAS the only airline to have a spotless record... Dustin Hoffman said so!
Also, they had a passenger plane shot down by the Japanese in 1942, a flying boat, but they can't really be blamed for that. Qantas, that is not the Japanese. All in all, including that, they've had twelve fatal crashes.
If S&P gives a bad rating, it will cause suffering. If they keep the good rating, there will be less economic hardship. Even if the US does rightfully deserve a worse rating, why not lie and give it a better rating anyway? Just like in Brazil when they defeated inflation by inventing the Real, they can improve an economy with lies. So much of economics simply has to do with psychology and confidence. If enough people believe the economy is good, they will save less, which will make the economy good. They are self fulfilling prophecies. So why don't economists and such just lie to make everyone believe the economy is awesome, even when it isn't?
Look, even if the U.S. gets downgraded by the other firms, everyone is still going to invest in the U.S. There is no where else to go. The EU is going into debt one by one and is actually quite scarier in terms of the threat it poses to the world economy opposed to the U.S. If investors were truly worried about the U.S., they'd raise interest rates for U.S. bonds, but the 10-year yield is still only 2.58%.
Worse still, though, if such a lie sends the economy up, and the lie is later found out, the economy is just going to crash back down even harder.
For example, CNBC can report entirely accurate financial information and numbers. Yet, if they get all of their anchors and guests to act as if the economy is awesome, that can actually result in the economy becoming awesome.
You might think, oh some smart guy will see the numbers and realize everything is in the shitter. Fine, that guy sells meanwhile most people buy because they have confidence. The lie gave them confidence. Now the smart move based on the numbers was actually a dumb move! The economy isn't like the weather that we have no control over. Our feelings of confidence ARE the economy. If you can get people to believe in the US economy, by any means, the US economy will improve and the dollar will increase in value.
Okay. Whatever. Southern Europe is an entirely different world in case you don't know. They buy water in stores for crying out loud.
Also, I do not see how lowering the US to double-A is going to help pay off debt. It's the least of the worries present. Just raise those fucking taxes and cut those budgets and be done with it. Half a decade of eating half a loaf of bread instead of a whole is better than eating no bread for a whole decade.
A massive marketing campaign to get people to behave as if the economy were good will cause the economy to be good. It's exactly the kind of big crazy idea that might work and nobody will ever try.
Even if you lie to them and give them free credit to start spending again. You just kicking the can down the road and making the problem worst (expanding the debt).