She comes off as kind of a bitch at first, e.g. when she says "I got the ticket, I got the ticket". Once I got used to her this became an endearing trait, but I can see how one could dislike Rainbow Dash.
Honestly, I find her to be sort of boring. The bitchiness doesn't bother me - she's really just full of herself. I'm cool with that. The problem is that she's very very very one-note.
I would like to see more of her, actually. I've noticed a lack of Rainbow Dash lately.
>I would like to see more of her, actually. I've noticed a lack of Rainbow Dash lately.
Rainbow hasn't had a major role since Sonic Rainboom - in A Dog and Pony show, she was part of the group of ponies, but in episodes 18 and 20 she only had cameos, and in 17 she didn't appear at all. /co/ may explode this week if she doesn't get a big part again.
And you can't demonstrate that chain of causality. You're just speculating. It could be Pinkie Pie's eye that shapes reality. It could be her cupcake tin. You have just as much evidence to support either of those possibilities as you do any other assertion as to her ability to "shape" reality. So until you can demonstrate that one is more likely than another, your claim is garbage.
As it stands, the only assertion for which we can gather any evidence at all is Pinkie Pie's ability to predict certain occurrences.
Okay, so there are four primary explanations for what happens in that episode 1) Coincidence 2) The "predictions" cause the "events" (causality) 3) The "events" cause the "predictions" (retrocausality) 4) There is a common cause for both the events and predictions It could be some combination of the above, of course.
I intend to argue later that 2) is in fact the most likely of the above options.
Yeah, I think it's pretty hard to really dislike any of the main ponies, except for Rarity.
I find my situation towards Rarity to be extremely positive from the start, maybe because she reminds me so much of the art and theatre buddies i hang out with, and me being an art guy myself. I instantly recognised her as a melodramatic type of character, and immediately thought, oh noes, theres going to be a whole ton of hate and calling her the bitch of the group from now on...that happens a lot towards friends i know in real life as well. I love the passion and code rarity conducts herself by, for herself, and towards her friends. People always seem to mistake the push for individuality as 'bitchy', and i never understood that. I would never call a character archtype akin to Rarity a "bitch", she watches out for her friends, and she intentionally puts herself forwards for her friends (Sonic Rainboom episode for eg, where she steps forwards when twilight asks for a person to experiment on). I identified powerfully with the ideas put forth in Suited for Success and Green Isnt Your Color. The former for the representations of zeal and personal craft that I as a creative person hold high above my own personal well being, and there are at times, when people have accused me of being overbearing or too "melodramatic" just because i didnt get what i wanted from others, and to large portion, from myself. The jealousy Rarity holds against Fluttershy in the latter are part and parcel of the creative industry and even amongst my buddies, and at the end, she handled it wonderfully, her daringness to once again, put herself in front of the bullet and braving possible humiliation for the sake of a friend, especially daring...since in the creative industries popularity and social networking and etiquette are elements that one needs to succeed (the Fashion world is particularly intimidating). In the end she reminds me of myself and my buddies, sure we may be 'bitchy" towards each other and other possible people for the sake of our own ego and melodrama, but it is this passion that bonds us and helps us understand the other (ive lost count on the number of arguments and screaming ive done, and the number of times i was hurt and my ego bruised in return, but that does not make me less of a friend when the time calls for it, and it actually makes me understand a friend more) and that what truly makes a frim and true friend. I would stand up for any of my buddies just as i stand up for Rarity here, and i trust that everyone of them will do the same. Rarity daringly exposes her heart and pride for all to see, and its not perfect, and the whole "Bitch" idea stems from that i feel.
Just my own two cents, just felt Rarity was getting way too sidelined..
The biggest problem with the idea that the predictions causing the events is that it would require Pinkie Pie to have a magical ability we have yet to see any other pony manifest, namely mind control. Getting Spike to open the door is one example, but the biggest one is the culmination of the episode, where Pinkie Pie's prediction ends up being that Twilight will believe her. You're saying that Pinkie Pie can control other pony's actions and even thoughts. There is no indication that this type of ability is possible, unless you want to get into Celestia being an evil dictator conspiracy theories, and even then she wouldn't allow somepony else with that ability to live.
Also, remember that the predictions were never "Somepony will get hit with a falling object," or "Somepony will be hit by a door", but just "Something's going to fall soon" or "Watch out for opening doors." There's no averting this type of prediction, like you guys were arguing about, the prediction just serves as a warning that something will happen soon, which you might avoid if you're careful.
My personal explanation for Pinkie Pie is that she has a type of magic that is rare and not well-known or studied. It lets her sense some upcoming event whose future occurrence has been made certain by something that has already taken place (Fluttershy deciding to move the frogs to the swamp, or Spike deciding to leave the house). This is just what made the most sense to me in the context of the episode, so it's what I'm believing for now.
How are people describing MLP:FIM to prospective 'Bronies'?
Depends on the person. "The Internet really likes the new My Little Pony; let's watch it," worked on my friend. Start with Sonic Rainboom or Bridle Gossip.
Look at what Pinkie Pie is able to do to Ponyville with just a few tail twitches and an umbrella hat. She doesn't have plans, she just... does... things. She shows the schemers just how... pathetic their attempts at controlling things really are.
Nobody panics if things are going according to plan, even if the plan is HORRIFYING. If I told the Pony Ville Press that the Nightmare in the Moon would create permanent night or a Hydra would attack and be defeated by the power of friendship then nobody panics, but if Pinkie Pie says something heavy is going to fall from the sky then everyone LOSES THEIR MINDS!
She doesn't have plans, she just... does... things. She shows the schemers just how... pathetic their attempts at controlling things really are.
Pinkie Pie == Haruhi!?
Wasn't it obvious?
Nope, Pinkie Pie is fun to hang around with. You'd want to punch Haruhi after about 10 minutes.
But to break minds, the one character I may not like the most is either Twilight or Fluttershy. Both have great moments of epic talent, yet they can become pretty annoying when they are stuck in a certain mode. Even though Fluttershy has her moment in "Dragonshy", she couldn't do anything for 75% of the episode. And as we've discussed, how awesome Twilight is varies on the writer.
Applejack: Uh, Twilight? Why are you hanging out in a ditch? Spike: Because Pinkie Pie predicted it! (My favourite line of the episode ^_~)
Also, remember that the predictions were never "Somepony will get hit with a falling object," or "Somepony will be hit by a door", but just "Something's going to fall soon" or "Watch out for opening doors." There's no averting this type of prediction, like you guys were arguing about, the prediction just serves as a warning that something will happen soon, which you might avoid if you're careful.
You're right about this. Still, Pinkie's ability is clearly very accurate.
A list of Pinkie Pie's predictions:
Some number of implicit past predictions based on the prior knowledge of other ponies and Pinkie Pie herself of the ability. Failed predictions may or may not have occurred, but none were mentioned.
00:45 twitchy tail <-> 01:11 A frog lands on Twilight's face
02:51 twitchy tail <-> 02:58 Twilight lands in a ditch
03:51 floppy ears <-> 04:01 Twilight gets splattered with mud by a cart that drives by through the ditch
04:22 achy shoulder <-> 04:27 Pinkie retrieves an alligator from the tub Twilight is in (I'm not sure if this is an actual prediction or a joke)
05:36 ear flop - eye flutter - knee twitch <-> 05:40 Twilight is hit by the door to her house (opened by Spike)
07:32 ear flop - eye flutter - knee twitch <-> 07:36 Twilight is hit by a door inside her house (opened by Spike)
09:20 itchy nose <-> 09:39 An angry swarm of bees attacks Twilight
10:05 ear flop - eye flutter - knee twitch <-> 10:26 Twilight falls into Applejack's cellar. This one is rather suspicious, since the cellar door opens, but Applejack is not near it as Twilight falls down the stairs - how did the door open?
10:46 twitchy tail <-> 11:02 A flowerpot, an anvil, a hay cart and a piano land on Twilight, in succession (apparently dropped by removal ponies)
11:38 - 19:49 full body twitch <-> 19:45 The "doozy"
Overall, there were quite a lot of predictions in that episode, and all of them seemed to be accurate, so a coincidence seems unlikely. On the other hand, why have Pinkie Pie's predictions never occurred except in one episode out of 20 total? That, too, would be quite a large coincidence. This is quite an important initial issue to resolve.
One important theory is that this entire episode was, in fact, a conspiracy to trick Twilight. The fact that Pinkie Pie's predictions only occur within this episode, and that every last prediction (except perhaps Celestia's landing) relates directly to Twilight provides strong evidence for this. Plus there's the instance where Applejack's door opens without being manually pushed by any pony. In the world of MLP:FIM, the most likely explanation is telekinesis - a clear sign of the conspiratorial efforts of other ponies! Additionally, though Twilight believes she is spying on Pinkie Pie "in secret", it is later revealed that Pinkie Pie knew about it all along.
Indeed, given the evidence, I am forced to side with this theory as the most likely explanation for the events of this episode.
Furthermore, I'd say that the conspiracy in question is just a massive prank orchestrated by Pinkie Pie - who, as we already know, is a master prankster. So, even if the episode doesn't prove that she is a prophet or Haruhi Suzumiya, it still proves she's fucking awesome.
Also, can you imagine how awesome "Feeling Pinkie Keen" would have been if there were a flashback at the end going through all the events of the day to show how they were, in fact, orchestrated by Pinkie Pie? That would have turned that episode from the worst episode into the best by far. I propose a project to create the real ending to the episode.
All "Feeling Pinkie Keen" taught me is that Equestria is within the Matrix. Pinkie Pie has clearly learned this, and is using that information to control what is perceived by the other ponies as reality. She is not truly the best pony, because she is no more powerful than if Rarity or Rainbow Dash learned the same thing.
Some number of implicit past predictions based on the prior knowledge of other ponies and Pinkie Pie herself of the ability. Failed predictions may or may not have occurred, but none were mentioned. [Applejack straight-up lied about Pinkie Pie having made past predictions]
00:45 twitchy tail <-> 01:11 A frog lands on Twilight's face [Rainbow Dash threw it]
02:51 twitchy tail <-> 02:58 Twilight lands in a ditch [The ditch was obvious; Pinkie saw it but Twilight was oblivious]
03:51 floppy ears <-> 04:01 Twilight gets splattered with mud by a cart that drives by through the ditch [The cart pony was in on it]
04:22 achy shoulder <-> 04:27 Pinkie retrieves an alligator from the tub Twilight is in (I'm not sure if this is an actual prediction or a joke) [Obviously Pinkie knew the alligator was there; it's her alligator]
05:36 ear flop - eye flutter - knee twitch <-> 05:40 Twilight is hit by the door to her house (opened by Spike) [see note below]
07:32 ear flop - eye flutter - knee twitch <-> 07:36 Twilight is hit by a door inside her house (opened by Spike) [see note below]
09:20 itchy nose <-> 09:39 An angry swarm of bees attacks Twilight [Unsure about this one]
10:05 ear flop - eye flutter - knee twitch <-> 10:26 Twilight falls into Applejack's cellar. This one is rather suspicious, since the cellar door opens, but Applejack is not near it as Twilight falls down the stairs - how did the door open? [A unicorn opened it with telekinesis, but which one?]
10:46 twitchy tail <-> 11:02 A flowerpot, an anvil, a hay cart and a piano land on Twilight, in succession (apparently dropped by removal ponies) [Derpy did it.]
11:38 - 19:49 full body twitch <-> 19:45 The "doozy" [This was Pinkie's ultimate move - her prank was so well set up, it was obvious it would convince Twilight. She still had to shake for 8 minutes before it happened, though]
20:38 - 21:08 twitchy tail <-> 21:20 Celestia lands on Twilight's balcony [Celestia was a co-conspirator]
As for Spike, he has to be either an unwitting accomplice, or a brilliant liar. I prefer the former - he was somehow manipulated into opening the door at the right time without his knowledge of it. The question is, how was it done? This would form the coup de grâce for the entire prank, so it has to be very good.
Yes, because that totally fits in with Celestia's character.
I like the idea of it being a massive prank, but it just doesn't work.
Celestia had disappearing ink in her office. She is most definitely a prankster at heart.
Perhaps she was using her magic to control Pinkie Pie's tail AND cause all of the other events in order to teach Twilight Sparkle not to delve too deep into matters better left unexplored. Twilight might uncover the dread truth of her power.
Also, can you imagine how awesome "Feeling Pinkie Keen" would have been if there were a flashback at the end going through all the events of the day to show how they were, in fact, orchestrated by Pinkie Pie? That would have turned that episode intoworst episode by far
FTFY.
Seriously, an ending like that? It slaps the whole idea of "Friendship is Magic" in the face. Seriously, you'd be being the bloody hell out Twilight for absolutely no reason, other than for this Machiavellian plot to make Twilight believe in Faith. These aren't simple pranks either, these are pretty hardcore, considering she went through a fall, animal attack, getting slammed by doors and having things injure her brain. "Feeling Pinkie Keen" has issues enough, but that episode already serves for making Twilight suffer for having a "at-worst" questionable character trait.
I wouldn't feel so bitter about your theories, because they do make a bit of sense. However, all Lauren Faust has to do to make the episode worth it, would be if Pinkie Pie were to have any more of her spasms. JUST ONE. Otherwise, the episode doesn't serve a whole lot of purpose other than some slapstick, which has been handled much better and more subtle in the show already.
TWS, first of all, you've got to realise that my detailed proposal was a possible narrative, aimed more at being entertaining than at being the most likely explanation. There are many, many ways in which each event of the episode could have been achieved, and I'm putting forth just one. Setting aside the specifics, the general idea of a prank is far more likely than Pinkie Pie being legitimately able to predict the future.
[A unicorn opened it with telekinesis, but which one?]
Every time a unicorn moves something with telekinesis, there's a glowy aura around it. No glowy aura around those doors. Try again.
A good point, but there are plenty of simple explanations for why there wouldn't have been a glowing aura in this case: 1) Telekinesis was used for just an instant, to get the door to start swinging. 2) The telekinesis was used on the door hinges rather than the entire frame of the door. 3) The "glowing aura" is not in fact an inseperable part of telekinesis - rather, it's just a visual aid for the ponies, used to highlight when and where telekinesis is being used so as to reduce the danger. It could well be that it is entirely possible to do a "silenced telekinesis" of sorts. It's just that no pony in the series has ever had reason to do telekinesis secretly. There could be evidence for or against 3) throughout the series, though I don't remember any offhand. Besides, if it wasn't telekinesis, how was the door opened?
[Rainbow Dash threw it]
Where was Rainbow Dash? And that is completely contradicted by the events of the episode, as Fluttershy apologizes for the problem.
If you look at the episode, the frog hits Twilight's face at a 45 degree angle! There's no way a frog could jump fast enough sideways to have the same horizontal velocity as vertical by the bottom of the fall, so the frog having been thrown is in fact a better explanation. Had the frog not been thrown, it would have come in at an angle much closer to vertical.
As for where Rainbow Dash was, that's pretty obvious. Before the opening music, she was in the sky (durr) - no one was looking her way, so of course they didn't notice her, and we didn't see her because the camera was focused on the ground. Rainbow Dash caught and threw, or perhaps kicked, a frog as it fell from Fluttershy. Fluttershy, of course, thought it was her fault and apologised, while Rainbow snuck off at speed.
This is definitely more likely than Fluttershy herself throwing the frog.
[Celestia was a co-conspirator]
Yes, because that totally fits in with Celestia's character.
Celestia had disappearing ink in her office. She is most definitely a prankster at heart.
I like the idea of it being a massive prank, but it just doesn't work.
It does, and it's still less of a stretch than Prophet Pinkie.
Side note: I just discussed the impact angle of a frog on a pony in My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic. Fuck yeah!
Tough choice. Rainbow Dash has the unapologetic sort of "I am who I am" attitude, Twilight Sparkle has the leadership quality (typical of principle protagonists) and major magic-skills, Fluttershy has the admirable humility and comedic shyness, and I simply like Rarity's color scheme the most. In the end, I had to go with Fluttershy because she makes me laugh the most.
Comments
I would like to see more of her, actually. I've noticed a lack of Rainbow Dash lately.
I guess all you guys don't like southern gals.
1) Coincidence
2) The "predictions" cause the "events" (causality)
3) The "events" cause the "predictions" (retrocausality)
4) There is a common cause for both the events and predictions
It could be some combination of the above, of course.
I intend to argue later that 2) is in fact the most likely of the above options.
In the end she reminds me of myself and my buddies, sure we may be 'bitchy" towards each other and other possible people for the sake of our own ego and melodrama, but it is this passion that bonds us and helps us understand the other (ive lost count on the number of arguments and screaming ive done, and the number of times i was hurt and my ego bruised in return, but that does not make me less of a friend when the time calls for it, and it actually makes me understand a friend more) and that what truly makes a frim and true friend. I would stand up for any of my buddies just as i stand up for Rarity here, and i trust that everyone of them will do the same. Rarity daringly exposes her heart and pride for all to see, and its not perfect, and the whole "Bitch" idea stems from that i feel.
Just my own two cents, just felt Rarity was getting way too sidelined..
Also, remember that the predictions were never "Somepony will get hit with a falling object," or "Somepony will be hit by a door", but just "Something's going to fall soon" or "Watch out for opening doors." There's no averting this type of prediction, like you guys were arguing about, the prediction just serves as a warning that something will happen soon, which you might avoid if you're careful.
My personal explanation for Pinkie Pie is that she has a type of magic that is rare and not well-known or studied. It lets her sense some upcoming event whose future occurrence has been made certain by something that has already taken place (Fluttershy deciding to move the frogs to the swamp, or Spike deciding to leave the house). This is just what made the most sense to me in the context of the episode, so it's what I'm believing for now.
Any failures?
Are there specific episodes or characters that you have found better at appealing to the uninitiated?
Nobody panics if things are going according to plan, even if the plan is HORRIFYING. If I told the Pony Ville Press that the Nightmare in the Moon would create permanent night or a Hydra would attack and be defeated by the power of friendship then nobody panics, but if Pinkie Pie says something heavy is going to fall from the sky then everyone LOSES THEIR MINDS!
Pinkie Pie is an agent of chaos.
But to break minds, the one character I may not like the most is either Twilight or Fluttershy. Both have great moments of epic talent, yet they can become pretty annoying when they are stuck in a certain mode. Even though Fluttershy has her moment in "Dragonshy", she couldn't do anything for 75% of the episode. And as we've discussed, how awesome Twilight is varies on the writer.
Spike: Because Pinkie Pie predicted it!
(My favourite line of the episode ^_~) You're right about this. Still, Pinkie's ability is clearly very accurate.
A list of Pinkie Pie's predictions:
- Some number of implicit past predictions based on the prior knowledge of other ponies and Pinkie Pie herself of the ability. Failed predictions may or may not have occurred, but none were mentioned.
- 00:45 twitchy tail <-> 01:11 A frog lands on Twilight's face
- 02:51 twitchy tail <-> 02:58 Twilight lands in a ditch
- 03:51 floppy ears <-> 04:01 Twilight gets splattered with mud by a cart that drives by through the ditch
- 04:22 achy shoulder <-> 04:27 Pinkie retrieves an alligator from the tub Twilight is in (I'm not sure if this is an actual prediction or a joke)
- 05:36 ear flop - eye flutter - knee twitch <-> 05:40 Twilight is hit by the door to her house (opened by Spike)
- 07:32 ear flop - eye flutter - knee twitch <-> 07:36 Twilight is hit by a door inside her house (opened by Spike)
- 09:20 itchy nose <-> 09:39 An angry swarm of bees attacks Twilight
- 10:05 ear flop - eye flutter - knee twitch <-> 10:26 Twilight falls into Applejack's cellar. This one is rather suspicious, since the cellar door opens, but Applejack is not near it as Twilight falls down the stairs - how did the door open?
- 10:46 twitchy tail <-> 11:02 A flowerpot, an anvil, a hay cart and a piano land on Twilight, in succession (apparently dropped by removal ponies)
- 11:38 - 19:49 full body twitch <-> 19:45 The "doozy"
- 20:38 - 21:08 twitchy tail <-> 21:20 Celestia lands on Twilight's balcony
Overall, there were quite a lot of predictions in that episode, and all of them seemed to be accurate, so a coincidence seems unlikely. On the other hand, why have Pinkie Pie's predictions never occurred except in one episode out of 20 total? That, too, would be quite a large coincidence. This is quite an important initial issue to resolve.One important theory is that this entire episode was, in fact, a conspiracy to trick Twilight. The fact that Pinkie Pie's predictions only occur within this episode, and that every last prediction (except perhaps Celestia's landing) relates directly to Twilight provides strong evidence for this. Plus there's the instance where Applejack's door opens without being manually pushed by any pony. In the world of MLP:FIM, the most likely explanation is telekinesis - a clear sign of the conspiratorial efforts of other ponies! Additionally, though Twilight believes she is spying on Pinkie Pie "in secret", it is later revealed that Pinkie Pie knew about it all along.
Indeed, given the evidence, I am forced to side with this theory as the most likely explanation for the events of this episode.
Furthermore, I'd say that the conspiracy in question is just a massive prank orchestrated by Pinkie Pie - who, as we already know, is a master prankster. So, even if the episode doesn't prove that she is a prophet or Haruhi Suzumiya, it still proves she's fucking awesome.
- Some number of implicit past predictions based on the prior knowledge of other ponies and Pinkie Pie herself of the ability. Failed predictions may or may not have occurred, but none were mentioned.
- 00:45 twitchy tail <-> 01:11 A frog lands on Twilight's face
- 02:51 twitchy tail <-> 02:58 Twilight lands in a ditch
- 03:51 floppy ears <-> 04:01 Twilight gets splattered with mud by a cart that drives by through the ditch
- 04:22 achy shoulder <-> 04:27 Pinkie retrieves an alligator from the tub Twilight is in (I'm not sure if this is an actual prediction or a joke)
- 05:36 ear flop - eye flutter - knee twitch <-> 05:40 Twilight is hit by the door to her house (opened by Spike)
- 07:32 ear flop - eye flutter - knee twitch <-> 07:36 Twilight is hit by a door inside her house (opened by Spike)
- 09:20 itchy nose <-> 09:39 An angry swarm of bees attacks Twilight
- 10:05 ear flop - eye flutter - knee twitch <-> 10:26 Twilight falls into Applejack's cellar. This one is rather suspicious, since the cellar door opens, but Applejack is not near it as Twilight falls down the stairs - how did the door open?
- 10:46 twitchy tail <-> 11:02 A flowerpot, an anvil, a hay cart and a piano land on Twilight, in succession (apparently dropped by removal ponies)
- 11:38 - 19:49 full body twitch <-> 19:45 The "doozy"
- 20:38 - 21:08 twitchy tail <-> 21:20 Celestia lands on Twilight's balcony
As for Spike, he has to be either an unwitting accomplice, or a brilliant liar. I prefer the former - he was somehow manipulated into opening the door at the right time without his knowledge of it. The question is, how was it done? This would form the coup de grâce for the entire prank, so it has to be very good.[Applejack straight-up lied about Pinkie Pie having made past predictions]
[Rainbow Dash threw it]
[The ditch was obvious; Pinkie saw it but Twilight was oblivious]
[The cart pony was in on it]
[Obviously Pinkie knew the alligator was there; it's her alligator]
[see note below]
[see note below]
[Unsure about this one]
[A unicorn opened it with telekinesis, but which one?]
[Derpy did it.]
[This was Pinkie's ultimate move - her prank was so well set up, it was obvious it would convince Twilight. She still had to shake for 8 minutes before it happened, though]
[Celestia was a co-conspirator]
I like the idea of it being a massive prank, but it just doesn't work.
Perhaps she was using her magic to control Pinkie Pie's tail AND cause all of the other events in order to teach Twilight Sparkle not to delve too deep into matters better left unexplored. Twilight might uncover the dread truth of her power.
Seriously, an ending like that? It slaps the whole idea of "Friendship is Magic" in the face. Seriously, you'd be being the bloody hell out Twilight for absolutely no reason, other than for this Machiavellian plot to make Twilight believe in Faith. These aren't simple pranks either, these are pretty hardcore, considering she went through a fall, animal attack, getting slammed by doors and having things injure her brain. "Feeling Pinkie Keen" has issues enough, but that episode already serves for making Twilight suffer for having a "at-worst" questionable character trait.
I wouldn't feel so bitter about your theories, because they do make a bit of sense. However, all Lauren Faust has to do to make the episode worth it, would be if Pinkie Pie were to have any more of her spasms. JUST ONE. Otherwise, the episode doesn't serve a whole lot of purpose other than some slapstick, which has been handled much better and more subtle in the show already.
1) Telekinesis was used for just an instant, to get the door to start swinging.
2) The telekinesis was used on the door hinges rather than the entire frame of the door.
3) The "glowing aura" is not in fact an inseperable part of telekinesis - rather, it's just a visual aid for the ponies, used to highlight when and where telekinesis is being used so as to reduce the danger. It could well be that it is entirely possible to do a "silenced telekinesis" of sorts. It's just that no pony in the series has ever had reason to do telekinesis secretly.
There could be evidence for or against 3) throughout the series, though I don't remember any offhand.
Besides, if it wasn't telekinesis, how was the door opened? If you look at the episode, the frog hits Twilight's face at a 45 degree angle! There's no way a frog could jump fast enough sideways to have the same horizontal velocity as vertical by the bottom of the fall, so the frog having been thrown is in fact a better explanation. Had the frog not been thrown, it would have come in at an angle much closer to vertical.
As for where Rainbow Dash was, that's pretty obvious. Before the opening music, she was in the sky (durr) - no one was looking her way, so of course they didn't notice her, and we didn't see her because the camera was focused on the ground. Rainbow Dash caught and threw, or perhaps kicked, a frog as it fell from Fluttershy. Fluttershy, of course, thought it was her fault and apologised, while Rainbow snuck off at speed.
This is definitely more likely than Fluttershy herself throwing the frog. It does, and it's still less of a stretch than Prophet Pinkie.
Side note: I just discussed the impact angle of a frog on a pony in My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic. Fuck yeah!
Nonetheless, Celestia enjoyed the prank.
Why would Celestia personally retrieve a scroll from Spike, if not for the sake of amusement?