Do you guys think Cruz's naturalized citizen status will play any sort of role in the election? As more GOP candidates drop out, I'm curious if it'll become a problem for his campaign or eligibility.
Do you guys think Cruz's naturalized citizen status will play any sort of role in the election? As more GOP candidates drop out, I'm curious if it'll become a problem for his campaign or eligibility.
Just remember that trump is winning 30 to 40% of a party that is about 35% of the population and only about 10-20% of those people are showing up to vote. in 3 states that have no population.
What makes me nervous is that Trump hasn't yet been matched up against Hillary or Sanders. We don't know their weaknesses against such an unpredictable opponent.
While percentages are on the side of non-Trump support (he has 35% of the 15% of the party members who vote in primaries, which makes up the 50% of the voters who are Republicans, where voters make up 50% of the population), I'm nervous that Hillary or Sanders also have the same non-support (they get about 50% of the 10% of the party that makes up 50% of the the voters who are Democrats, where voters make up 50% of the population).
So after the primaries, who will find more support in their current non-supporters? How much do people not like Hillary and her history? How much do people not like Sanders and socialism? How much do people not like Trump and his rhetoric? I have a feeling Trump does VERY well in this race.
I think Trump being almost 100% full of shit is going to make him a formidable opponent. Most nominees swing to the center after the primary season is over, I can see Trump swinging so close to the center it's going to piss off even more Republicans than ever. But it's also going to appeal mightily to independents and non-voters who are sick of normal politics. They don't want business-as-usual, and while things Trump has said are deplorable, I've got a feeling they will hold their nose and give a Trump presidency a try.
In this match-up, Hillary is going to bomb. She will have to rely on minority voters, which will work, but it'll be close. Sanders will probably do better, as he is also non-business-as-usual as Trump, but actually an experienced politician.
What boggles my mind about Trump and his supporters is how monstrously stupid and contradictory, or outright impossible, his comments are and how much they eat it up.
Her's a moron barely capable of coherent speech, barking about how he'll bomb and wall and kill and not take any shit from anyone. But he has no plan, no applicable experience, no moral code. The sole platforms in his campaign are apparently kill or wall of everyone we don't like, deport minorities, and just sort of make it happen through force of will.
How has the public become so thoroughly stupid that they think this is governance?
What really amazes me, and I almost sort of respect, is the success Trump is having in selling himself as "anti-political."
If there's one thing most voters claim to hate, it's "politics." So an anti-establishment candidate will basically have it in the bag, because they'll be pandering to people who want dramatic change and spectacle.
Trump is doing literally the most political thing possible - running for President - and yet he has people convinced that he's not a politician. He's been gearing up for this campaign for years, but his voting block doesn't see it that way because he's spun his image carefully. The birther thing? All politics. He's been involved in political posturing for some time now.
He's definitely got the "both parties are exactly the same" people in his block, which really terrifies me. Apparently people are so desperate to shake up the establishment that they'd vote for someone with disastrous policies before they vote for someone with a carefully-executed platform.
But honestly, I also don't see Trump as that anti-establishment. What of his policies are actually contrary to the majority of the basic Republican agenda? I mean, he supports single-payer - OK, that's a departure. But most of the rest of his policies are just an extreme take on establishment views. That's just...more establishment. He just packages it differently.
"Mexicans are rapists" and "deport all Muslims" aren't anti-establishment ideals, their bigotry. You'd have to be brain damaged not to see that.
They are what establishment Republics say, in very veiled terms, and the normal racist voters pick up on it. But then, once in office, the establishment politicians do nothing.
Trump is saying that stuff out loud. He is calling the establishment on their bullshit, and voters are lapping it up.
That was wild. The Don and Rubio shouting over each other for 20 straight seconds, people in the crowd literally screaming, Ben Carson wasn't paying attention when a moderator asked him a question.
If anything, it's gotten crazier as candidates drop out.
Just a note from what I saw in the Debate. Trump is the Moderate running for the Republican Nomination. He's a Bully, he's a Racist, he's clearly insane in a lot of positions but compared to Rubio he's a Dove and compared to Cruz he's a Liberal. The others don't matter. He is supportive of gay rights and he's willing to negotiation with anyone. He is most likely Pro-choice as well. The Republican party is literally going to explode. The Christie endorsement solidified this view.
Trump has effectively both pushed the party to embrace it's racist nature and at the same time showed the folly of their positions on foreign policy and social issues. It's actually super crazy.
Tweeting "George HW Bush is only there because he couldn't get a refund for his tickets after Jeb left." on the debate hashtag has brought me one Trump supporting follower. This may be interesting...
Trump is driving a wedge right into the longstanding fissure between the derp/racist GOP base, the "traditional conservative" base, and the religious base.
Conventional conservative wisdom has said for the entire 6th party system that ideologically pure fiscal stances were the core, with ideologically pure social stances forming a secondary base of near equal size. The derp/racist vote just sort of came along for the ride (and since WWII shopped around between the GOP and Southern Democrats).
It turns out that the fiscal stuff has been a red herring for a long time. You can bring the derp crowd along for populism, possibly even fucking communism, if you exclude minorities and cater to their derp. They're less interested in tax returns or conservative credentials, and more interested in keeping minorities away from their perceived birthright.
Part of the reason they're so vocal and so deeply attached to Trump is that they've been hearing the dogwhistles for generations, but haven't actually achieved much. Trump eschews the dogwhistles and is openly whistling, effectively calling out the previous GOP establishments for signaling racism but not effectively implementing it (in their eyes).
People said that about the 2008 elections too. Not saying you're wrong (who can know), but this is the sort of thing that's typically decided in hindsight, yeah?
Comments
Seriously.
In what world does that make sense?
Dear rest of the world,
Please put us out of our misery.
Sincerely,
America
While percentages are on the side of non-Trump support (he has 35% of the 15% of the party members who vote in primaries, which makes up the 50% of the voters who are Republicans, where voters make up 50% of the population), I'm nervous that Hillary or Sanders also have the same non-support (they get about 50% of the 10% of the party that makes up 50% of the the voters who are Democrats, where voters make up 50% of the population).
So after the primaries, who will find more support in their current non-supporters? How much do people not like Hillary and her history? How much do people not like Sanders and socialism? How much do people not like Trump and his rhetoric? I have a feeling Trump does VERY well in this race.
I think Trump being almost 100% full of shit is going to make him a formidable opponent. Most nominees swing to the center after the primary season is over, I can see Trump swinging so close to the center it's going to piss off even more Republicans than ever. But it's also going to appeal mightily to independents and non-voters who are sick of normal politics. They don't want business-as-usual, and while things Trump has said are deplorable, I've got a feeling they will hold their nose and give a Trump presidency a try.
In this match-up, Hillary is going to bomb. She will have to rely on minority voters, which will work, but it'll be close. Sanders will probably do better, as he is also non-business-as-usual as Trump, but actually an experienced politician.
Her's a moron barely capable of coherent speech, barking about how he'll bomb and wall and kill and not take any shit from anyone. But he has no plan, no applicable experience, no moral code. The sole platforms in his campaign are apparently kill or wall of everyone we don't like, deport minorities, and just sort of make it happen through force of will.
How has the public become so thoroughly stupid that they think this is governance?
Trump knows that. He is clever enough to know that saying stupid things picks up that anti-Party/Washington/establishment vote every time.
If there's one thing most voters claim to hate, it's "politics." So an anti-establishment candidate will basically have it in the bag, because they'll be pandering to people who want dramatic change and spectacle.
Trump is doing literally the most political thing possible - running for President - and yet he has people convinced that he's not a politician. He's been gearing up for this campaign for years, but his voting block doesn't see it that way because he's spun his image carefully. The birther thing? All politics. He's been involved in political posturing for some time now.
He's definitely got the "both parties are exactly the same" people in his block, which really terrifies me. Apparently people are so desperate to shake up the establishment that they'd vote for someone with disastrous policies before they vote for someone with a carefully-executed platform.
But honestly, I also don't see Trump as that anti-establishment. What of his policies are actually contrary to the majority of the basic Republican agenda? I mean, he supports single-payer - OK, that's a departure. But most of the rest of his policies are just an extreme take on establishment views. That's just...more establishment. He just packages it differently.
Trump is saying that stuff out loud. He is calling the establishment on their bullshit, and voters are lapping it up.
If anything, it's gotten crazier as candidates drop out.
Watch video of a municipal government meeting. Or a session of congress where something is actually happening...
Trump has effectively both pushed the party to embrace it's racist nature and at the same time showed the folly of their positions on foreign policy and social issues. It's actually super crazy.
Conventional conservative wisdom has said for the entire 6th party system that ideologically pure fiscal stances were the core, with ideologically pure social stances forming a secondary base of near equal size. The derp/racist vote just sort of came along for the ride (and since WWII shopped around between the GOP and Southern Democrats).
It turns out that the fiscal stuff has been a red herring for a long time. You can bring the derp crowd along for populism, possibly even fucking communism, if you exclude minorities and cater to their derp. They're less interested in tax returns or conservative credentials, and more interested in keeping minorities away from their perceived birthright.
Part of the reason they're so vocal and so deeply attached to Trump is that they've been hearing the dogwhistles for generations, but haven't actually achieved much. Trump eschews the dogwhistles and is openly whistling, effectively calling out the previous GOP establishments for signaling racism but not effectively implementing it (in their eyes).