I find it particularly baffling the sheer amount of dislike Hillary receives from younger voters. You'd think she kicked their puppies or something.
I think it's a rooted in a very similar sort of mentality exhibited by Trump supporters.
There is a subset of the population that wants a political "outsider." Someone who isn't part of the "establishment," who is "above the fray." Someone who's "clean." These people want a superhero.
It seems to me that it's rooted in a detachment from the realities of politics. The work of politics is dirty, messy, and involves compromising on things you'd rather not compromise on. An outsider who looks "clean" is only so because they're not really getting their hands dirty with work. I'm a Bernie fan - well, his platform at least - and I'll say again and again that I am less than enamored with the way he has "worked" in the Senate.
I liken it to the detachment of consumers from the means of food production. When they see an industrial food processing plant, it's scary. OH NO! STEEL AND CHEMICALS! THAT'S NOT FOOD!
Complaining about a politician who's political is sort of like complaining that the butcher smells like blood. Ya gotta make sausage somehow.
Don't like the "Establishment", by voting someone whose been in the Senate since 1991.
Hillary said something that was marginally racist (which she's since walked back) so we'll let the guy that had to have a day think over denouncing the KKK win. She gets 90% of the African-American vote, but the young crowd throw her in the gutter because reasons.
We elected a Superhero, his name was Obama that only turned out so-so. Let's elect another Superhero to a House and Senate the obstruct anyone that's not their party on general principle.
If people want that amount of change they're going to need to run for office at the state level first, then at the federal level.
FARAI CHIDEYA 10:57 PM Micah, it’s true that Clinton overwhelmingly won the black vote in Super Tuesday states where she beat Sanders, including Georgia. Pragmatism about black political interests and how the game is played is likely the primary factor, since Sanders has also spoken to issues of core interest to black voters.
But a candidate speaking to the issues that a demographic cares about isn’t enough, no matter your race, and particularly so for black voters. Many black voters could support Sanders’s positions, but if they don’t think he knows how to wrangle Congress, there’s a risk in voting for him. I can’t help but think of President Lyndon B. Johnson wrangling an ambivalent Congress to pass civil rights legislation. He was known for his ability to work inside the political system, which may be tactically more important for black voters than white voters.
I’ve seen some self-described white Sanders voters express anger on social media, saying that black people are voting against their interests. But one of the roles the president plays is interacting with Congress and pushing (or aiming to block) the passage of legislation. And black and white voters have very different experiences with government when it comes to supporting legislation. This University of Chicago study shows how, all other factors aside, black support for legislation means it’s less likely to be passed.If white voters support a bill, it’s much more likely to be passed and adopted. But if black voters support legislation, it’s actually less likely to pass. That argues that black voters may have a tactical interest in an establishment candidate they think can work behind the scenes in their interest, and there’s a perception that Clinton may be better at insider politics. That also tracks with the broader support on the Democratic side for an experienced candidate, versus on the GOP side for an anti-establishment candidate.
FARAI CHIDEYA 10:57 PM Micah, it’s true that Clinton overwhelmingly won the black vote in Super Tuesday states where she beat Sanders, including Georgia. Pragmatism about black political interests and how the game is played is likely the primary factor, since Sanders has also spoken to issues of core interest to black voters.
But a candidate speaking to the issues that a demographic cares about isn’t enough, no matter your race, and particularly so for black voters. Many black voters could support Sanders’s positions, but if they don’t think he knows how to wrangle Congress, there’s a risk in voting for him. I can’t help but think of President Lyndon B. Johnson wrangling an ambivalent Congress to pass civil rights legislation. He was known for his ability to work inside the political system, which may be tactically more important for black voters than white voters.
I’ve seen some self-described white Sanders voters express anger on social media, saying that black people are voting against their interests. But one of the roles the president plays is interacting with Congress and pushing (or aiming to block) the passage of legislation. And black and white voters have very different experiences with government when it comes to supporting legislation. This University of Chicago study shows how, all other factors aside, black support for legislation means it’s less likely to be passed.If white voters support a bill, it’s much more likely to be passed and adopted. But if black voters support legislation, it’s actually less likely to pass. That argues that black voters may have a tactical interest in an establishment candidate they think can work behind the scenes in their interest, and there’s a perception that Clinton may be better at insider politics. That also tracks with the broader support on the Democratic side for an experienced candidate, versus on the GOP side for an anti-establishment candidate.
What is it that people think Hillary will push for that Bernie won't or won't be able to? Both of them have spoken about the racial issues in our society, but I haven't heard either of them suggest concrete reforms. The way I see it, if you're a singe issue race voter, staying home from the primary is pretty reasonable.
I believe that mostly comes from the fact that Clinton has remained a popular, prominent, political figure since the 90s and many people are just learning about Sanders for the first time a year ago, so they may not automatically trust him or understand his history.
What is it that people think Hillary will push for that Bernie won't or won't be able to? Both of them have spoken about the racial issues in our society, but I haven't heard either of them suggest concrete reforms. The way I see it, if you're a singe issue race voter, staying home from the primary is pretty reasonable.
I've had it expressed to me much more simply - When the history of your people is 250+ years of old white guys telling you they know what's best for you and that not working out so well, you're not inclined to trust that THIS old white guy telling you he knows whats best for you is the real deal.
Ugh I want to explain but I don't want to be that white guy who explains to another white dude what Black people are thinking... Let me find an article written by someone from the group. Like that comment I posted.
1. Not a guy. 2. Sanders' use of unsubtle variations of "you owe me" as a means of winning black supporters. It wasn't effective. 3. The BernieBros lash-out against black voters in the wake of the South Carolina primary wasn't particularly good press either. 4. Obama has basically endorsed Hillary without publicly saying so. 5. Hillary has done a good job at linking her campaign with Obama's presidency.
I believe that mostly comes from the fact that Clinton has remained a popular, prominent, political figure since the 90s and many people are just learning about Sanders for the first time a year ago, so they may not automatically trust him or understand his history.
It's too bad Bernie Sanders just entered politics, so people didn't get a chance to trust him or understand his history. Oh wait, he's been in Congress since 1991, before the Clintons even left Arkansas... Maybe if he had done more than just yell at the world for 25 years up in Vermont, he'd have a higher profile. Maybe if he had supported and encouraged other politicians to run who agreed with him, his "revolution" would be a possibility instead of just a pipe dream. How is it that Elizabeth Warren, who became a Senator in 2012, has a bigger profile than Bernie in just 3-4 years? I don't want to speak for anyone else, but personally, if you asked me who'd I prefer to vote for, Hillary, Bernie, or Elizabeth Warren, I'd choose Warren. Bernie Sanders is the shareware version of Warren. Not as polished, not as good, but close enough and cheap that you're willing to sacrifice that quality for price. Elizabeth Warren vs Hillary Clinton would have been a real race, but even Warren might not have won.
The most confusing exit polls are the ones that have Sanders ahead with Democratic Primary voters who want to be less liberal than Obama. What the heck is up with that.. Republicans who couldn't vote in their primary because they were registered wrong?
1. Not a guy. 2. Sanders' use of unsubtle variations of "you owe me" as a means of winning black supporters. It wasn't effective. 3. The BernieBros lash-out against black voters in the wake of the South Carolina primary wasn't particularly good press either. 4. Obama has basically endorsed Hillary without publicly saying so. 5. Hillary has done a good job at linking her campaign with Obama's presidency.
My words, but none of these are my assessments. I'm repeating the various reasons I've been given, since I've been looking and asking about this out of curiosity. I am in no way speaking for any minority community in the US.
6. Hillary's campaign points to recent efforts and says "Here's what we've done with you over this period of time from X till now", whereas Sander's Civil Rights PR seems to be primarily based around an old guy saying "Look at what I did in the sixties" and for once not meaning a shitload of drugs, and with the implied "I did it for you." A bunch of white people then repeat that at you, over and over and over, while dismissing you if you ask "Well, what's he done lately?"
7. Until recently, his hammer for every nail on racial issues was income inequality, which seems somewhat less important compared to other current issues like police shooting black people in the street with little provocation, or arson attacks on black churches. The amount of money in your wallet doesn't mean shit if your kid is bleeding out on the street after being shot by a cop for carrying a broomstick.
To quote Ta Nehisi Coates, Sanders “address black people not so much as a class specifically injured by white supremacy, but rather, as a group which magically suffers from disproportionate poverty.” Following this, he wrote - “Jim Crow and its legacy were not merely problems of disproportionate poverty. Why should black voters support a candidate who does not recognize this?”
(As a bit of a 7a. It went far from unnoticed that Sanders supporters went absolutely batshit on Coates for this, which didn't help the cause.)
8. A number of Sanders supporters(and to some degree, the campaign itself) who are trying to approach minority voters like they're a puzzle they just need to figure out, and then they get rewarded with votes. This does not go down well, as minority voters are not puzzle boxes with votealicious candy treats inside, they're people with their own concerns, issues and priorities.
9. Bernie has a much less known history of minority community outreach post 1970s. Clinton, on the other hand, has been doing it consistently and visibly since the 90s. Sure, he has some recent advocacy, but it seems that this is viewed as electioneering more than genuine advocacy - after all, where was this sanders guy before he showed up looking for votes?
10. His choices for higher-profile black people to put on his campaign were honestly quite poor - Cornel West, to whom many people's primary exposure was his attacking Obama(with things like calling him a privileged white man in black skin) and Killer Mike(Who all but literally called Obama an Uncle Tom, and quite literally called him a "House slave"). Considering such attacks have been used for years against black people who succeed, the whole "Blacker than thou" thing seems to be received by black voters about as well as a turd in a punchbowl.
11. Following from ten, these choices also take on the appearance of trotting out high-profile black people and assuming that the black community will simply follow along with them because of the colour of their skin.
12. When questioned about his lack of support with black voters, Sanders' response amounted to "Well, they'll like me when they start learning about my congressional record", which seems innocent enough, but came across as calling people who didn't support him uneducated and uninformed.
There's more, but I think that's about as much as we can bear without really belaboring the point. It's not one small problem or issue that can be pointed to, it's a constant failure of messaging.
So it's not a matter of liking Clinton, it's just that she's not Sanders?
Not really. The perception is that even though Bernie's been a senator forever, Clinton's been better at "getting things done" - working with cross-aisle support and getting laws passed. It's pragmatism vs. the over-promising idealist - I don't think black voters would expect Sanders to be able to get anything done, while Clinton might at least move the needle a little.
So it's not a matter of liking Clinton, it's just that she's not Sanders?
Not really. I was expanding on Banta's post, more than answering your question. That's why they don't care for sanders, not why they care for Hillary.
Minority voters tend to be overwhelmingly in favor of Hillary as Hillary, not Hillary as "Anyone but sanders", due to her consistent community outreach, listening to said people about what their problems are(As opposed to "It's income inequality" "No, It's really much more than..." "Yep! It's income inequality and I'm gonna fix it!"), her strong history of standing up for and helping minorities. She's listened more, done more, and has been a greater visible presence for those communities more than Sanders has, and they seem to love her for it. Minority issues have been her big thing, even since she was a teenager.
A SPEECH ng we'll be back but I just want a job. Just get me a job. I don’t need it. I don’t know. Maybe they didn’t even know that because I've gotten to see so many -- I guess millions of dollars from all of the thing I’ll let them fight each other. Here we are in Syria. We're fighting here.
When you win it's beautiful women – some are girls – but beautiful women and I got it. And you know, we have another American company comes to see and comes to bid. It's South Korea, whether it's Mexico or Japan or Viet Nam which is just taking advantage of us I have no clue what they're doing a great spirit.”
He was vibrant. He was young. I really thought that he would be a great company we've built and now we want to put that energy – who cares? We do a building. It doesn’t mean anything? They send the destroying our jobs back, folks. We're going to tell you.
I will immediately.
Fully support and back up the Second Amendment.
Now, it’s very crass.” I say, “Listen, here’s what’s happening to the economic power a year ago or so, Afghanistan has tremendous power over everybody. I love you an example. And the trade bill for a number of reasons.
Number two, I’m a private company, so nobody knows where they're crumbling. You look at Obamacare.
I will immediately terminate President Obama – the one person I sought after project in the history of the General Patton or I will find the guy that’s going to get such great potential. So if I run, if I run. I’m running as opposed to dislike them? I love them.
Because you've done so many deals. Almost all of them have been abandoned.
And then you have never seen. We'll get a lower taxes substantially for the folks here the other day, “But, Mr. Trump, that’s true…
So China is going crazy with the devaluation. I never thought.
I look at all of the people of Iowa. They have something’s happening. And it’s impossible for you to sell your product, takes our jobs. They all have to take care of our vets. Right? Right.
But so they do this, we're going to make it so complicated and so terrible story. I hate to see what happens ultimately.
But, we have right now on the other side of the mountain China is taking over Iraq. Think of it. ISIS is fighting the business with China. And they were phenomenal. They were hitting me.
But they all said, a lot of the Deal and that’s what we have= representing us. They wouldn’t even use — you know, I was the most
A SPEECH ng we'll be back but I just want a job. Just get me a job. I don’t need it. I don’t know. Maybe they didn’t even know that because I've gotten to see so many -- I guess millions of dollars from all of the thing I’ll let them fight each other. Here we are in Syria. We're fighting here.
When you win it's beautiful women – some are girls – but beautiful women and I got it. And you know, we have another American company comes to see and comes to bid. It's South Korea, whether it's Mexico or Japan or Viet Nam which is just taking advantage of us I have no clue what they're doing a great spirit.”
He was vibrant. He was young. I really thought that he would be a great company we've built and now we want to put that energy – who cares? We do a building. It doesn’t mean anything? They send the destroying our jobs back, folks. We're going to tell you.
I will immediately.
Fully support and back up the Second Amendment.
Now, it’s very crass.” I say, “Listen, here’s what’s happening to the economic power a year ago or so, Afghanistan has tremendous power over everybody. I love you an example. And the trade bill for a number of reasons.
Number two, I’m a private company, so nobody knows where they're crumbling. You look at Obamacare.
I will immediately terminate President Obama – the one person I sought after project in the history of the General Patton or I will find the guy that’s going to get such great potential. So if I run, if I run. I’m running as opposed to dislike them? I love them.
Because you've done so many deals. Almost all of them have been abandoned.
And then you have never seen. We'll get a lower taxes substantially for the folks here the other day, “But, Mr. Trump, that’s true…
So China is going crazy with the devaluation. I never thought.
I look at all of the people of Iowa. They have something’s happening. And it’s impossible for you to sell your product, takes our jobs. They all have to take care of our vets. Right? Right.
But so they do this, we're going to make it so complicated and so terrible story. I hate to see what happens ultimately.
But, we have right now on the other side of the mountain China is taking over Iraq. Think of it. ISIS is fighting the business with China. And they were phenomenal. They were hitting me.
But they all said, a lot of the Deal and that’s what we have= representing us. They wouldn’t even use — you know, I was the most
uggggghhhh, so many friends stating that Hillary sweep super Tuesday in 2008 so don't lose hope.. I guess their definition of sweeping = winning 10 out of 23 contests...
Also seeing a lot of people saying that Southern states shouldn't matter in the D primary because they won't vote that way in the General..... Do they realize they are disregarding black voters in the south by saying that?
uggggghhhh, so many friends stating that Hillary sweep super Tuesday in 2008 so don't lose hope.. I guess their definition of sweeping = winning 10 out of 23 contests...
Additionally, in 2008, the Obama team completely revolutionized how campaigns focused on the primaries. His team focused more on delegates than on winning states. He focused more on the "winner take all" states despite their size instead of bigger states where the delegates were split proportionally. And it worked.
This primary season, there are no "winner take all" states in the Democratic primary. Just look at NH this election... Bernie destroyed Hillary by over 20% but he only got 15 delegates compared to her 9. Bernie has no chance to pull off an upset like Obama did in 2008.
Edited to add:
For a really great article on just how Obama pulled off the upset in 2008, here's a link to an in-depth Washington Post article from June 2008:
Megyn Kelly is bringing the most hard hitting journalism I've seen on TV I've seen since watching CNN International during Katrina. I think it's because of Murdoch's influence on the existing GOP and his dedication to keep Trump from destroying it.
Comments
There is a subset of the population that wants a political "outsider." Someone who isn't part of the "establishment," who is "above the fray." Someone who's "clean." These people want a superhero.
It seems to me that it's rooted in a detachment from the realities of politics. The work of politics is dirty, messy, and involves compromising on things you'd rather not compromise on. An outsider who looks "clean" is only so because they're not really getting their hands dirty with work. I'm a Bernie fan - well, his platform at least - and I'll say again and again that I am less than enamored with the way he has "worked" in the Senate.
I liken it to the detachment of consumers from the means of food production. When they see an industrial food processing plant, it's scary. OH NO! STEEL AND CHEMICALS! THAT'S NOT FOOD!
Complaining about a politician who's political is sort of like complaining that the butcher smells like blood. Ya gotta make sausage somehow.
Hillary said something that was marginally racist (which she's since walked back) so we'll let the guy that had to have a day think over denouncing the KKK win. She gets 90% of the African-American vote, but the young crowd throw her in the gutter because reasons.
We elected a Superhero, his name was Obama that only turned out so-so. Let's elect another Superhero to a House and Senate the obstruct anyone that's not their party on general principle.
If people want that amount of change they're going to need to run for office at the state level first, then at the federal level.
FARAI CHIDEYA 10:57 PM
Micah, it’s true that Clinton overwhelmingly won the black vote in Super Tuesday states where she beat Sanders, including Georgia. Pragmatism about black political interests and how the game is played is likely the primary factor, since Sanders has also spoken to issues of core interest to black voters.
But a candidate speaking to the issues that a demographic cares about isn’t enough, no matter your race, and particularly so for black voters. Many black voters could support Sanders’s positions, but if they don’t think he knows how to wrangle Congress, there’s a risk in voting for him. I can’t help but think of President Lyndon B. Johnson wrangling an ambivalent Congress to pass civil rights legislation. He was known for his ability to work inside the political system, which may be tactically more important for black voters than white voters.
I’ve seen some self-described white Sanders voters express anger on social media, saying that black people are voting against their interests. But one of the roles the president plays is interacting with Congress and pushing (or aiming to block) the passage of legislation. And black and white voters have very different experiences with government when it comes to supporting legislation. This University of Chicago study shows how, all other factors aside, black support for legislation means it’s less likely to be passed.If white voters support a bill, it’s much more likely to be passed and adopted. But if black voters support legislation, it’s actually less likely to pass. That argues that black voters may have a tactical interest in an establishment candidate they think can work behind the scenes in their interest, and there’s a perception that Clinton may be better at insider politics. That also tracks with the broader support on the Democratic side for an experienced candidate, versus on the GOP side for an anti-establishment candidate.
2. Sanders' use of unsubtle variations of "you owe me" as a means of winning black supporters. It wasn't effective.
3. The BernieBros lash-out against black voters in the wake of the South Carolina primary wasn't particularly good press either.
4. Obama has basically endorsed Hillary without publicly saying so.
5. Hillary has done a good job at linking her campaign with Obama's presidency.
6. Hillary's campaign points to recent efforts and says "Here's what we've done with you over this period of time from X till now", whereas Sander's Civil Rights PR seems to be primarily based around an old guy saying "Look at what I did in the sixties" and for once not meaning a shitload of drugs, and with the implied "I did it for you." A bunch of white people then repeat that at you, over and over and over, while dismissing you if you ask "Well, what's he done lately?"
7. Until recently, his hammer for every nail on racial issues was income inequality, which seems somewhat less important compared to other current issues like police shooting black people in the street with little provocation, or arson attacks on black churches. The amount of money in your wallet doesn't mean shit if your kid is bleeding out on the street after being shot by a cop for carrying a broomstick.
To quote Ta Nehisi Coates, Sanders “address black people not so much as a class specifically injured by white supremacy, but rather, as a group which magically suffers from disproportionate poverty.” Following this, he wrote - “Jim Crow and its legacy were not merely problems of disproportionate poverty. Why should black voters support a candidate who does not recognize this?”
(As a bit of a 7a. It went far from unnoticed that Sanders supporters went absolutely batshit on Coates for this, which didn't help the cause.)
8. A number of Sanders supporters(and to some degree, the campaign itself) who are trying to approach minority voters like they're a puzzle they just need to figure out, and then they get rewarded with votes. This does not go down well, as minority voters are not puzzle boxes with votealicious candy treats inside, they're people with their own concerns, issues and priorities.
9. Bernie has a much less known history of minority community outreach post 1970s. Clinton, on the other hand, has been doing it consistently and visibly since the 90s. Sure, he has some recent advocacy, but it seems that this is viewed as electioneering more than genuine advocacy - after all, where was this sanders guy before he showed up looking for votes?
10. His choices for higher-profile black people to put on his campaign were honestly quite poor - Cornel West, to whom many people's primary exposure was his attacking Obama(with things like calling him a privileged white man in black skin) and Killer Mike(Who all but literally called Obama an Uncle Tom, and quite literally called him a "House slave"). Considering such attacks have been used for years against black people who succeed, the whole "Blacker than thou" thing seems to be received by black voters about as well as a turd in a punchbowl.
11. Following from ten, these choices also take on the appearance of trotting out high-profile black people and assuming that the black community will simply follow along with them because of the colour of their skin.
12. When questioned about his lack of support with black voters, Sanders' response amounted to "Well, they'll like me when they start learning about my congressional record", which seems innocent enough, but came across as calling people who didn't support him uneducated and uninformed.
There's more, but I think that's about as much as we can bear without really belaboring the point. It's not one small problem or issue that can be pointed to, it's a constant failure of messaging.
Minority voters tend to be overwhelmingly in favor of Hillary as Hillary, not Hillary as "Anyone but sanders", due to her consistent community outreach, listening to said people about what their problems are(As opposed to "It's income inequality" "No, It's really much more than..." "Yep! It's income inequality and I'm gonna fix it!"), her strong history of standing up for and helping minorities. She's listened more, done more, and has been a greater visible presence for those communities more than Sanders has, and they seem to love her for it. Minority issues have been her big thing, even since she was a teenager.
This primary season, there are no "winner take all" states in the Democratic primary. Just look at NH this election... Bernie destroyed Hillary by over 20% but he only got 15 delegates compared to her 9. Bernie has no chance to pull off an upset like Obama did in 2008.
Edited to add:
For a really great article on just how Obama pulled off the upset in 2008, here's a link to an in-depth Washington Post article from June 2008:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/03/AR2008060304268.html?sid=ST2008060203207