If Twilight has to use a hot air balloon to get around, no way can Pinkie fly with the power of her own horn.
Isn't that just in the opener? Also Twilight uses a carriage carried by two male pegasi to take her from Canterlot to Ponyville. Regardless, if she was a unicorn she could have easily used her magical powers to bake and do other various things in which she did it the normal pony way.
They use the balloon to go to Cloudsdale. The chariot was on loan from the royalty.
Regardless, if she was a unicorn she could have easily used her magical powers to bake and do other various things in which she did it the normal pony way.
Much like in our real world, people (ponies) value things that are hand-crafted. Would you rather have a wool hat from a store that was made by a machine, or one knit by your knitting friend? Would you rather have a cupcake that was baked, or a cupcake that was made instantly by magic? A moustache that was grown naturally, like the Sea Serpent, or a bullshit one like Spike's?
Would you rather have a wool hat from a store that was made by a machine, or one knit by your knitting friend? Would you rather have a cupcake that was baked, or a cupcake that was made instantly by magic? A moustache that was grown naturally, like the Sea Serpent, or a bullshit one like Spike's?
Not once did I see Pinkie's predictions actually averted.
Once again, that's Twilight Sparkle's fault, not Pinkie Pie's. I'll note that the people who listened to Pinkie Pie did not get doors in their faces.
Without seeing a prediction averted, this point is quite weak, and I don't see how you can blame Twilight. From what we saw, for each prediction there was precisely one event that matched the prediction. What the other ponies did does not seem to have any relevance to the predictions. Hell, I could predict now that someone in the world will have a door slammed into their face within 10 minutes. Does that mean everyone who didn't was merely "smart" enough to avoid their predicted fate?
It's more reasonable to posit that Pinkie Pie is actually causing these events rather than predicting them in some retrocausal manner.
No, because you have no evidence that she is causing those events. The extent of the evidence we have indicates that she is a predictor of those events. The mechanism of prediction is unknown, and until that is investigated, we have no idea as to whether she knows or if she's actually responsible for the occurrences.
I'm not suggesting Pinkie Pie is intentionally causing these things to happen; indeed, I doubt she would.
However, as far as mechanisms of prediction are concerned, there is other evidence we can use to make a comparison. We have two models to compare, an observation-only prediction model, and another where events are actively influenced. Consider this - to make a prediction as accurate as one of Pinkie Pie's, you would need a near-perfect model of reality, which is extremely unlikely. If reality was truly so predictable in Equestria, Pinkie Pie would not be the only one making such predictions. By comparison, to actively influence events would only require a rough model of reality - easily simple enough to fit in Pinkie Pie's brain - because there is a wide time window in which events can be manipulated into shape.
In either case it is clearly some form of magic, but one option is a one-of-a-kind predicting power, and the other is a far more mundane magic (telekinesis in particular) that seems to be relatively common in Equestria.
It seems quite likely that Pinkie Pie has magic which subconsciously shapes events to match her "predictions". In the absence of further evidence, given Occam's Razor and my previous argument, this should be the preferred explanation. Yes, we definitely need more evidence, because it isn't especially clear either way, but this explanation is the best one we have at this point in time.
Regardless of the type of magic, the remaining questions are: 1) Why does Pinkie Pie have magic without an evident horn (whatever that kind of magic may be)? 2) Why is this magic subconscious?
No, because you have no evidence that she is causing those events. The extent of the evidence we have indicates that she is a predictor of those events. The mechanism of prediction is unknown, and until that is investigated, we have no idea as to whether she knows or if she's actually responsible for the occurrences.
Here's another point I'd like to make - what would constitute evidence of causation as opposed to merely being an accurate predictor, by your standards?
Every time I let go of a ball in my hand, it falls to the ground. Doesn't that simply mean that letting go of the ball is merely an extremely accurate predictor of the ball falling to the ground? What makes this relationship actually causative? Indeed, I'd suggest that the notion of causality is in fact equivalent to extremely accurate prediction.
what would constitute evidence of causation as opposed to merely being an accurate predictor, by your standards?
I'm not the one making the extraordinary claim. You support your position with evidence, and I tell you whether the evidence presented is sufficient or not.
If reality was truly so predictable in Equestria, Pinkie Pie would not be the only one making such predictions.
Why not? And you're assuming that other prophets are impossible. We're only discussing whether or not Pinkie Pie has the ability to predict, not whether or not anyone else has the ability to predict.
But OK, how about the prophecy in the pilot episode? Clearly, prophecy and predictions work in this world.
Without seeing a prediction averted, this point is quite weak, and I don't see how you can blame Twilight.
At 4-ish minutes into episode 15, Pinkie's ears start twitching. Applejack and Spike move well out of the way, but Twilight does not. Twilight gets hit with mud. Applejack and Spike avert the prediction, while Twilight does not.
Seriously, you're just wrong. You have no way to support the assertion that you're making.
but this explanation is the best one we have at this point in time.
No, it's not. You only have speculation that points to her ability to "shape" events, and that contradicts the established normality of the world - that is, only unicorns have telekinetic abilities. Your assertion would also fundamentally change the way we understand Equestria, and thus is subject to a higher standard of proof.
This is what Feeling Pinkie Keen did to everypony. Too much talk over what Pinkie Pie can or can't do and how Twilight was affected drove everypony nuts.
I'm not the one making the extraordinary claim. You support your position with evidence, and I tell you whether the evidence presented is sufficient or not.
You claimed there was zero evidence of causation, which is definitely an extraordinary claim. I asked you an entirely valid and important question - "what is evidence of causation, then?" and you ignored it.
Why not? And you're assuming that other prophets are impossible. We're only discussing whether or not Pinkie Pie has the ability to predict, not whether or not anyone else has the ability to predict.
I made no such assumption. The point is that it is rather unlikely that such predictive powers would be possible and yet seen nowhere else throughout the course of the show.
But OK, how about the prophecy in the pilot episode? Clearly, prophecy and predictions work in this world.
The pilot episode is worthy of consideration, but the evidence of prophecy is very weak indeed compared to the Pinkie Pie episode. There are far more mundane explanations, even something as simple as Luna herself saying "I'm coming back in 1000 years to fuck you up" and then following through with her claim would explain it. The fact of the matter is that prophecy is not part of day-to-day life in Equestria; ponies do not trot around looking at prophecies to tell them which apples they should buy.
At 4-ish minutes into episode 15, Pinkie's ears start twitching. Applejack and Spike move well out of the way, but Twilight does not. Twilight gets hit with mud. Applejack and Spike avert the prediction, while Twilight does not.
Ah, but the prediction wasn't "Twilight, Applejack and Spike will get hit with mud". No one said the prediction had anything at all to do with Applejack and Spike - the prediction translates to "one or more ponies will get hit with mud", and that prediction happened exactly as stated. As such, you still haven't demonstrated a prediction that was actually averted. Try again.
Indeed, any decently accurate prediction would have to take into account the effects of announcing that prediction, and so it makes sense that Applejack and Spike not getting hit by mud was, in fact, all part of the plan.
No, it's not. You only have speculation that points to her ability to "shape" events, and that contradicts the established normality of the world - that is, only unicorns have telekinetic abilities. Your assertion would also fundamentally change the way we understand Equestria, and thus is subject to a higher standard of proof.
Your suggested notion that prophecy actually works is subject to the same standard of proof, because it too would fundamentally change the way we understand Equestria.
The point is that it is rather unlikely that such predictive powers would be possible and yet seen nowhere else throughout the course of the show.
Except that we know there's more to Equestria than what we've seen. Your point only holds any water if Pinkie Pie's ability is truly unique.
You claimed there was zero evidence of causation, which is definitely an extraordinary claim. I asked you an entirely valid and important question - "what is evidence of causation, then?" and you ignored it.
First, I said that you have provided zero evidence of causation, not that evidence of causation cannot or does not exist. Second, I did address your question: it's not my job to tell you what would constitute valid evidence, but rather it is your job to provide evidence that you feel supports it.
I don't know what evidence of causation would look like. We can make a pretty good argument that Twilight Sparkle, Princess Celestia, and Rarity all have telekinetic magic, as this is established in speech and directly observable to the audience.
If Pinkie Pie has any telekinetic powers, it doesn't show. In fact, that prediction she made 4 minutes in had nothing at all to do with telekinesis; a cart rolled by. Now your claim would have to be that Pinkie Pie took control of both that cart and the pony pulling it, direct it over the mud puddle, and do so while also exercising her ability to predict.
How about the first time a door gets opened in Twilight's face? It's clear that Spike was coming through the door and opening it quickly, and that is the direct cause of the door opening. It happens again later, when Twilight asks Spike if he's in cahoots with Pinkie Pie.
So, again, you've provided no evidence indicating that Pinkie Pie is actually manipulating events, and I've provided evidence demonstrating that other actors are responsible for the acts that Pinkie predicts.
It's clear that Spike was coming through the door and opening it quickly, and that is the direct cause of the door opening.
How do you know that? As far as I can tell, a person turning and pushing on a handle and doors opening are merely two events with a particularly strong correlation. I don't see "causation" anywhere.
Besides, it does not matter whether something is a "direct cause" or not. That has no bearing on whether something else, in turn, caused that cause, and hence was a more basic cause. "Other actors" are irrelevant to Pinkie Pie's relationship with reality.
That has no bearing on whether something else, in turn, caused that cause, and hence was a more basic cause.
And you can't demonstrate that chain of causality. You're just speculating. It could be Pinkie Pie's eye that shapes reality. It could be her cupcake tin. You have just as much evidence to support either of those possibilities as you do any other assertion as to her ability to "shape" reality. So until you can demonstrate that one is more likely than another, your claim is garbage.
As it stands, the only assertion for which we can gather any evidence at all is Pinkie Pie's ability to predict certain occurrences.
So when the hell is Princess Luna going to show back up? For such a potentially powerful pony she has disappeared. Did Princess Celestia send her to the Gluelog?
Early in my watching of the series I would've agreed with Rarity. After episode 15, I would've said Twilight. Now, I think I have to say Applejack. Not to say that Applejack is a bad pony, I just don't think she's as good as the others.
Nah, there is legitimate reason to dislike Rainbow Dash. She comes off as kind of a bitch at first, e.g. when she says "I got the ticket, I got the ticket". Once I got used to her this became an endearing trait, but I can see how one could dislike Rainbow Dash.
I find the main ponies almost impossible to actually dislike. I'm closest to disliking Applejack, but that's really closer to apathy than dislike, as we haven't seen Applejack in a while. The episode this Friday should change that, though.
I like all of them, but I see how it's possible for someone else to dislike Rarity or Rainbow Dash. I thought I disliked Twilight after her bout of stupid, but that was disappointment rather than dislike, really.
You'd have to basically be evil incarnate to dislike Fluttershy, though.
Comments
However, as far as mechanisms of prediction are concerned, there is other evidence we can use to make a comparison. We have two models to compare, an observation-only prediction model, and another where events are actively influenced. Consider this - to make a prediction as accurate as one of Pinkie Pie's, you would need a near-perfect model of reality, which is extremely unlikely. If reality was truly so predictable in Equestria, Pinkie Pie would not be the only one making such predictions. By comparison, to actively influence events would only require a rough model of reality - easily simple enough to fit in Pinkie Pie's brain - because there is a wide time window in which events can be manipulated into shape.
In either case it is clearly some form of magic, but one option is a one-of-a-kind predicting power, and the other is a far more mundane magic (telekinesis in particular) that seems to be relatively common in Equestria.
It seems quite likely that Pinkie Pie has magic which subconsciously shapes events to match her "predictions". In the absence of further evidence, given Occam's Razor and my previous argument, this should be the preferred explanation. Yes, we definitely need more evidence, because it isn't especially clear either way, but this explanation is the best one we have at this point in time.
Regardless of the type of magic, the remaining questions are:
1) Why does Pinkie Pie have magic without an evident horn (whatever that kind of magic may be)?
2) Why is this magic subconscious?
what would constitute evidence of causation as opposed to merely being an accurate predictor, by your standards?
Every time I let go of a ball in my hand, it falls to the ground. Doesn't that simply mean that letting go of the ball is merely an extremely accurate predictor of the ball falling to the ground? What makes this relationship actually causative? Indeed, I'd suggest that the notion of causality is in fact equivalent to extremely accurate prediction.
But OK, how about the prophecy in the pilot episode? Clearly, prophecy and predictions work in this world. At 4-ish minutes into episode 15, Pinkie's ears start twitching. Applejack and Spike move well out of the way, but Twilight does not. Twilight gets hit with mud. Applejack and Spike avert the prediction, while Twilight does not.
Seriously, you're just wrong. You have no way to support the assertion that you're making. No, it's not. You only have speculation that points to her ability to "shape" events, and that contradicts the established normality of the world - that is, only unicorns have telekinetic abilities. Your assertion would also fundamentally change the way we understand Equestria, and thus is subject to a higher standard of proof.
Indeed, any decently accurate prediction would have to take into account the effects of announcing that prediction, and so it makes sense that Applejack and Spike not getting hit by mud was, in fact, all part of the plan. Your suggested notion that prophecy actually works is subject to the same standard of proof, because it too would fundamentally change the way we understand Equestria.
I don't know what evidence of causation would look like. We can make a pretty good argument that Twilight Sparkle, Princess Celestia, and Rarity all have telekinetic magic, as this is established in speech and directly observable to the audience.
If Pinkie Pie has any telekinetic powers, it doesn't show. In fact, that prediction she made 4 minutes in had nothing at all to do with telekinesis; a cart rolled by. Now your claim would have to be that Pinkie Pie took control of both that cart and the pony pulling it, direct it over the mud puddle, and do so while also exercising her ability to predict.
How about the first time a door gets opened in Twilight's face? It's clear that Spike was coming through the door and opening it quickly, and that is the direct cause of the door opening. It happens again later, when Twilight asks Spike if he's in cahoots with Pinkie Pie.
So, again, you've provided no evidence indicating that Pinkie Pie is actually manipulating events, and I've provided evidence demonstrating that other actors are responsible for the acts that Pinkie predicts.
Really, again, you're just wrong.
Besides, it does not matter whether something is a "direct cause" or not. That has no bearing on whether something else, in turn, caused that cause, and hence was a more basic cause. "Other actors" are irrelevant to Pinkie Pie's relationship with reality.
As it stands, the only assertion for which we can gather any evidence at all is Pinkie Pie's ability to predict certain occurrences.
Not to say that Applejack is a bad pony, I just don't think she's as good as the others.
Once I got used to her this became an endearing trait, but I can see how one could dislike Rainbow Dash.
I thought I disliked Twilight after her bout of stupid, but that was disappointment rather than dislike, really.
You'd have to basically be evil incarnate to dislike Fluttershy, though.