Trump is now campaigning on "What have you left to lose" in order to convince black voters for him. Not only is there a lot to lose, I don't think that is the kind of slogan that should convince anyone to entrust someone with their sociopolitical future.
Trump is not trying to attract black voters. Just white voters who need a little something so they can support him and continue to tell themselves they aren't racist.
From what I understand, it isn't really that bad that his businesses have accumulated so much debt. Lots of businesses do and work themselves out of it and it is often calculated risk to do so.
The problem is more that due to this debt he is beholden to his debtors, and unlike other presidential candidates these assets will be managed by his children if he assumes the public role which represents a GIGANTIC conflict of interests for Trump. It is also supremely hypocritical of Trump and the GOP to paint Hillary as the "Wall Street candidate" when Trump is in a far worse position in that regard. Hillary was paid by Wall Street while Trump still has to pay Wall Street.
And that Trumps campaign has gathered a lot of favor because he says he's "self funded" and "doesnt have to answer to anyone," which is obviously false if he is so deep in debt..
But even someone lacking intelligence can possess curiosity, empathy, and will. I'll take a deeply unintelligent person who tries hard and wants to be better any day over a reddit atheist who knows everything in the world.
But even someone lacking intelligence can possess curiosity, empathy, and will. I'll take a deeply unintelligent person who tries hard and wants to be better any day over a reddit atheist who knows everything in the world.
I stole this map from another forum. Dark colors indicate >90% certain, light color >75% certain to go for that party according to 538.com, and the rest is bronze. I mean it is a good thing that it is all but decided but jeez.
They're correlated, though. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he probably won Ohio and Virginia too. So it's not like "coin flip * 10 states, have to win them all" to win.
It's not all but decided. It looks dire now, but there's still plenty of race to run - at this point, Trump can still get back in the game. The race could very well tighten over time.
It's not all but decided. It looks dire now, but there's still plenty of race to run - at this point, Trump can still get back in the game. The race could very well tighten over time.
I was going to say something but then I remember 2004. America can be dumb like that. Let's hope that dumb does not become evil over time.
It's not all but decided. It looks dire now, but there's still plenty of race to run - at this point, Trump can still get back in the game. The race could very well tighten over time.
I was going to say something but then I remember 2004. America can be dumb like that. Let's hope that dumb does not become evil over time.
I've heard the 2004 election characterized as: "Not wanting to change horses in mid-stream." That kind of mentality favors the incumbent party more.
The good new is the 2020 election will be the first election where the majority of voters are not Boomers.
While I'm no expert and I'm not gonna say it's a foolproof method. Wouldn't it be a decent idea to go with the actual for cash money betting odds in places where betting on the US presidential election is allowed?
While I'm no expert and I'm not gonna say it's a foolproof method. Wouldn't it be a decent idea to go with the actual for cash money betting odds in places where betting on the US presidential election is allowed?
Betting odds can have a sense of "herding" and like to overly favor distant underdogs; I'm more inclined to trust Nate Silver's willingness to stick to his model.
While I'm no expert and I'm not gonna say it's a foolproof method. Wouldn't it be a decent idea to go with the actual for cash money betting odds in places where betting on the US presidential election is allowed?
Betting odds can have a sense of "herding" and like to overly favor distant underdogs; I'm more inclined to trust Nate Silver's willingness to stick to his model.
Wouldn't that suggest there's money to be made here? Anything overly favored when money is on the line is an opportunity.
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The problem is more that due to this debt he is beholden to his debtors, and unlike other presidential candidates these assets will be managed by his children if he assumes the public role which represents a GIGANTIC conflict of interests for Trump. It is also supremely hypocritical of Trump and the GOP to paint Hillary as the "Wall Street candidate" when Trump is in a far worse position in that regard. Hillary was paid by Wall Street while Trump still has to pay Wall Street.
HOW IS THIS REAL
But even someone lacking intelligence can possess curiosity, empathy, and will. I'll take a deeply unintelligent person who tries hard and wants to be better any day over a reddit atheist who knows everything in the world.
They have it at 80-20 right now. Not exactly close, but not really all-but-decided either.
States like Georgia should not be in-play.
The good new is the 2020 election will be the first election where the majority of voters are not Boomers.
Nate Silver says Hillary has an 80% chance to win, so I predict she has an 80% chance to win.
It's not perfect, but unless someone has pretty compelling arguments as to how their model is better, that prediction is not really meaningful.