I'm not a fan of arming the rebels. I think that may go too far. Of course I am at a loss for what should be done, I just feel trepidation for arming the rebels.
I'm not a fan of arming the rebels. I think that may go too far. Of course I am at a loss for what should be done, I just feel trepidation for arming the rebels.
They are denying that they are arming rebels. If I was them, I would release rumors that we were arming rebels while using special forces and CIA assets to do more damage to their communications and support hoping more high ranking people defect.
I'm not a fan of arming the rebels. I think that may go too far. Of course I am at a loss for what should be done, I just feel trepidation for arming the rebels.
They are denying that they are arming rebels. If I was them, I would release rumors that we were arming rebels while using special forces and CIA assets to do more damage to their communications and support hoping more high ranking people defect.
Aaaand NPR just said this morning that the CIA is now in Libya training rebels and gathering intelligence. I really hope this doesn't end poorly.
Aaaand NPR just said this morning that the CIA is now in Libya training rebels and gathering intelligence. I really hope this doesn't end poorly.
Well, I mean if we are not going to land ground troops or just drop a bomb on Gaddafi this is what we are going to have to do. Hopefully they are picking secular groups.
Aaaand NPR just said this morning that the CIA is now in Libya training rebels and gathering intelligence. I really hope this doesn't end poorly.
Okay, I'm NOT saying that there are exact parallels and analogues, but do you know shat "training rebels and gathering intelligence" reminds me of? Three guesses as to where we were training troops and gathering intelligence in the early 60s.
That's how these things always seem to go. You get drawn in bit by bit, piece by piece. In that spot of bother in Indochina in the early 60s, we kept saying that we were only there as advisors, and things would never heat up. I know that's basically what we're saying now, and I sincerely hope they keep their promises, but it's really hard to disengage from the tar baby once you've hugged him.
Aaaand NPR just said this morning that the CIA is now in Libya training rebels and gathering intelligence. I really hope this doesn't end poorly.
Well, I mean if we are not going to land ground troops or just drop a bomb on Gaddafi this is what we are going to have to do. Hopefully they are picking secular groups.
This is exactly the sort of thing that you're going to be hearing. "In order to complete the mission, we have to do X . . . and now Y . . . and now Z . . . (further iterations of mendacity) . . . and now ground troops . . . and now we have to re-institute the draft." That's what I've heard in virtually every conflict since WW II, with the exception of little brushfires like Haiti and Grenada.
Before the deluge of posts seeling to correct me, I'm NOT predicting that the draft will come again over Libya; that was just hyperbole for the sake of comedy, but you gotta wonder were we're going to get the troops we need if this kind of intervention is going to be our policy. The draft might not come over Libya, but it might come if we decide to go into, oh, I don't know . . .Syria, maybe? I'd think you younger guys would be very interested in that. What happened to air strikes only?
If we didn't need a draft for Gulf War I, or GWII/Afganistan, I seriously doubt we'd need one for Libya. The Texas National Guard could, with the rebels on their side, wipe out the Lybian Army, which is at best a mish mash of mostly outdated equipment and divided tribal loyalties.
All hyperbole aside, its more likely that we will train effective fighters and leaders who we will be fighting in 2030.
Vietnam happened and the negative results are so ingrained on the American psyche that no one is going to bring back the draft unless the N. Koreans invade the US homeland.
The Texas National Guard could, with the rebels on their side, wipe out the Lybian Army, which is at best a mish mash of mostly outdated equipment and divided tribal loyalties.
You have a source for that, or is that just how you feel in your gut about the situation? Is this more, "Derp! USA! USA!"? Have you seen the news lately? The nationalist forces seem to be standing up to the rebels just fine. In fact, they've driven them out of some cities. I haven't read or seen much about how the nationalists are divided.
Vietnam happened and the negative results are so ingrained on the American psyche that no one is going to bring back the draft unless the N. Koreans invade the US homeland.
We'll have a draft the moment when the government feels it's necessary. We're involved in two wars now, and have been going on ten years, and now we're running the risk of getting involved in a third. How long do you think a volunteer force is going to handle that sort of stress? How about after Libya? If we continue this policy of interventionism, Libya is not going to be the last problem in the problem set by a long shot.
Whatever party decides the draft is a good idea is going to commit suicide. Americans don't have the desire for it. Much like our senators and congresspeople, we like sending other people to war, but not going ourselves.
Whatever party decides the draft is a good idea is going to commit suicide. Americans don't have the desire for it.
If you don't think Palin, Limbaugh, Beck, et al. couldn't sell the draft to their acolytes, you underestimate their influence. They already have their people rallying in support of things clearly against their best interests. They could get their people lining up to pay money to eat snot-booger pies if they wanted. All they'd need would be to have Palin wink at them, Beck cry, Limbaugh to say that anyone against the draft is a godless, America-hating liberal and then maybe have Lee Greenwood sing some jingoistic songs, and there'd be people yelling for the draft to come back.
But really, I'm NOT saying there is any imminent danger of this happening. That was never my point. Please let's not make this into a hundred posts of people's opinions about the draft. I know most people think that the draft will never come back because too many people are against it. We don't have to go through all of that, do we?
Libyan Army: estimated size 25,000. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_Army. Texas National Guard size is much harder to come by. Texas has 10 percent of the US population, and roughly 1.6 percent of the population is in the national guard, so rough estimate, the TX National Guard is around 50,000 people.
Of course I selected the TX NG because they are the largest and have Special Forces units and armored divisions and the whole 9 yards.
The point isn't that I think America is cool and wonderful (living in the Saudi Arabia for work has helped me think America is cool and wonderful), its that fighting a real professional army is a far cry from fighting your own untrained people.
Libya couldn't win against Chad.
As far as the draft, I would say you are the one overestimating the power of Beck, Palin etc etc. The draft just isn't going to happen.
We can agree to disagree, you don't insinuate that I'm a love-it-or-leave it jingoistic lackey to the government and I won't insinuate that your a [insert witty insult here].
Libyan Army: estimated size 25,000. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_Army. Texas National Guard size is much harder to come by. Texas has 10 percent of the US population, and roughly 1.6 percent of the population is in the national guard, so rough estimate, the TX National Guard is around 50,000 people.
Of course I selected the TX NG because they are the largest and have Special Forces units and armored divisions and the whole 9 yards.
The point isn't that I think America is cool and wonderful (living in the Saudi Arabia for work has helped me think America is cool and wonderful), its that fighting a real professional army is a far cry from fighting your own untrained people.
Libya couldn't win against Chad.
Yea, yesterday I did the same calculation. The Texas National guard could probably wipe the floor with almost every other military (except the really big guys).
But at the same time, to we really want the Egyptian people to be subjected to martial law? I don't trust an inherintly militant organization to be less oppressive.
What a mess. The MB was getting dangerously autocratic, but who knows whether this is the beginning of another couple decades of military dictatorship.
No idea how to fix this other than years of development of secular parties that respect the democratic process.
The military has a HUGE secular interest in stability and economic growth, as well as allowing a moderate center-right government to take root.
This is a big turning point for Egypt. The Islamists bullied their way into power and immediately exemplified the worst of what anyone would have predicted. Now, because the people have realized they can actually control their own government, there's a huge moderate backlash against the far right.
The military is providing the most important piece of all this: security. If they remained "neutral," the majority of voters would be subject to the whims of the violent minority. If they sided with the government, they'd just prop up a corrupt, obviously failed, unpopular government and lose the massive goodwill and respect they have among the common people.
Security and a path to a reinstalled democracy is a real possibility.
The MB won a democratic vote. I don't believe they won that vote solely by bullying. They were the only party that was somewhat organized under Mubarak and they retain a significant passionate base, particularly among poor/rural/low information voters. Getting those people to see a different perspective is a major long term problem (as it is in Iran, and heck, Russia and even the US if you want to go that far). Big turnouts in the cosmopolitan cities don't mean that all that much has changed in terms of population attitudes.
Something else I'm chewing on today. There was an study I read about right after the Tunisian revolution that suggested that most countries that are going to have a successful revolution generally have it at roughly the same economic point ($2000 per capita GDP, if I recall correctly). Tunisia went right at that point, and things haven't been perfect but Ennadha has worked with the secular groups. Egypt was a heck of a lot poorer... and poorer countries usually get stuck in a long cycle of unrest and civil war. And as long as things stay unstable, their economy won't grow.
Morsi is out of power. Army just made a statement with the following roadmap.
a- The consitution is temporarily disabled. b- Head of Constitutional Court to become temporary President. c- Has the power to announce consitutional amendments during this period. d- Formation of all-inclusive government. e- Formation of committee to review necessary changes. f- Law for election of parliament. g- Guidelines for media. h- Active inclusion of youth in governance. i- Formation of Committee seeking national reconciliation.
Exclusion of youth is something that came with democracy for political science reasons I won't get into. Both Elizabeths were under 30 when they took their thrones. Ludwig II of Bavaria was 16 when he took his. Emperor Romulus Augustus of Rome was 14 when he did the same.
Exclusion of youth is something that came with democracy for political science reasons I won't get into. Both Elizabeths were under 30 when they took their thrones. Ludwig II of Bavaria was 16 when he took his. Emperor Romulus Augustus of Rome was 14 when he did the same.
Ugh, it seems like this guy probably knows what he's talking about, but the whole jumpcut thing and the guy's presentation style bug the hell out of me so much that I can't possibly finish the video.
Ugh, it seems like this guy probably knows what he's talking about, but the whole jumpcut thing and the guy's presentation style bug the hell out of me so much that I can't possibly finish the video.
Comments
That's how these things always seem to go. You get drawn in bit by bit, piece by piece. In that spot of bother in Indochina in the early 60s, we kept saying that we were only there as advisors, and things would never heat up. I know that's basically what we're saying now, and I sincerely hope they keep their promises, but it's really hard to disengage from the tar baby once you've hugged him. This is exactly the sort of thing that you're going to be hearing. "In order to complete the mission, we have to do X . . . and now Y . . . and now Z . . . (further iterations of mendacity) . . . and now ground troops . . . and now we have to re-institute the draft." That's what I've heard in virtually every conflict since WW II, with the exception of little brushfires like Haiti and Grenada.
Before the deluge of posts seeling to correct me, I'm NOT predicting that the draft will come again over Libya; that was just hyperbole for the sake of comedy, but you gotta wonder were we're going to get the troops we need if this kind of intervention is going to be our policy. The draft might not come over Libya, but it might come if we decide to go into, oh, I don't know . . .Syria, maybe? I'd think you younger guys would be very interested in that. What happened to air strikes only?
All hyperbole aside, its more likely that we will train effective fighters and leaders who we will be fighting in 2030.
Vietnam happened and the negative results are so ingrained on the American psyche that no one is going to bring back the draft unless the N. Koreans invade the US homeland.
But really, I'm NOT saying there is any imminent danger of this happening. That was never my point. Please let's not make this into a hundred posts of people's opinions about the draft. I know most people think that the draft will never come back because too many people are against it. We don't have to go through all of that, do we?
Libyan Army: estimated size 25,000. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_Army. Texas National Guard size is much harder to come by. Texas has 10 percent of the US population, and roughly 1.6 percent of the population is in the national guard, so rough estimate, the TX National Guard is around 50,000 people.
Of course I selected the TX NG because they are the largest and have Special Forces units and armored divisions and the whole 9 yards.
The point isn't that I think America is cool and wonderful (living in the Saudi Arabia for work has helped me think America is cool and wonderful), its that fighting a real professional army is a far cry from fighting your own untrained people.
Libya couldn't win against Chad.
As far as the draft, I would say you are the one overestimating the power of Beck, Palin etc etc. The draft just isn't going to happen.
We can agree to disagree, you don't insinuate that I'm a love-it-or-leave it jingoistic lackey to the government and I won't insinuate that your a [insert witty insult here].
No idea how to fix this other than years of development of secular parties that respect the democratic process.
This is a big turning point for Egypt. The Islamists bullied their way into power and immediately exemplified the worst of what anyone would have predicted. Now, because the people have realized they can actually control their own government, there's a huge moderate backlash against the far right.
The military is providing the most important piece of all this: security. If they remained "neutral," the majority of voters would be subject to the whims of the violent minority. If they sided with the government, they'd just prop up a corrupt, obviously failed, unpopular government and lose the massive goodwill and respect they have among the common people.
Security and a path to a reinstalled democracy is a real possibility.
Something else I'm chewing on today. There was an study I read about right after the Tunisian revolution that suggested that most countries that are going to have a successful revolution generally have it at roughly the same economic point ($2000 per capita GDP, if I recall correctly). Tunisia went right at that point, and things haven't been perfect but Ennadha has worked with the secular groups. Egypt was a heck of a lot poorer... and poorer countries usually get stuck in a long cycle of unrest and civil war. And as long as things stay unstable, their economy won't grow.
Being a Jew!
Who made the accusation? The outgoing Mobro crew....